Russian glide bomb (UMPK/UMPB) strikes have become more accurate and can be launched from greater ranges. They destroy entire positions and have a greater psychological impact than artillery. Glide bombs can flatten structures in cities that would take days of artillery fire to destroy.

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

The promise of additional Patriot batteries, NASAMS, and Hawks, plus rerouting of missile exports to Ukraine can make a big difference this year. That said, pushing Patriot batteries forward to tackle Russian air strikes will be risky if they cannot themselves be protected. 11/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

This has a pernicious effect, suppressing artillery, enabling Russian dynamic targeting in the rear, and makes forward deploy long-range air defense a high risk proposition. AFU units are pursuing novel counters, such as interceptor FPV drones, but need scalable solutions. 8/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Ukraine is very low on ammunition for legacy Soviet systems, whereas Russian drone and missile production rates have increased significantly. A deficit of air defense has led to pervasive Russian UAS reconnaissance behind the front line and increased success rates in strikes. 7/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

A change in US policy on weapons employment enabled Ukraine to push Russian S-300s, used to bombard the city, away from Kharkiv. This bought the city breathing space, and forced Russia to make adjustments, although the offensive had already culminated by that point. 5/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Ukraine’s manpower, fortifications, and ammunition situation is steadily improving. Russian forces are advancing in Donetsk, and likely to make further gains, but they have not been able to exploit the Kharkiv offensive into a major breakthrough. 2/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Despite the improved outlook, rectifying manpower deficits will take time. Russian forces are likely to keep advancing over the coming months, especially in Donetsk. The next 2 months will be especially difficult.

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

The Kharkiv front has stabilized, with the overall correlation of forces not favorable to Moscow there. Russian operations are focused on the following directions: Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Ocheretyne-Pokrovsk, and to a lesser extent Kupyansk. 3/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

The Netherlands allocate €300 million for F-16 munitions to be delivered to Ukraine

→ View original post on X — @liganet

Not only the Tu-95MS. The Russian Federation also changed the launch site of Kalibr cruise missiles. During the missile attack on the morning of 08.07, 7 Caliber missiles were launched from the Caspian Sea (Kaspijsk region). Missile launches were carried out by the MRC of

→ View original post on X — @euromaidanpr