We are preparing 10 new brigades to prepare for the offensive of the russian federation. Part of them will be deployed to protect Kyiv, – Pavlyuk
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Mass evacuation underway from Vovchansk community in Kharkiv Oblast
The population is being evacuated en masse from the #Vovchansk community, which is located near the border in #Kharkiv Oblast This information was confirmed by the head of Vovchanska CMA, Tamaz Gambarashvili, in a comment to Hromadske radio.
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Russians aim to create a buffer zone near Kharkiv
The Russians want to create a buffer zone in the Kharkiv region, pushing the armed forces 10 km from the Russian border. – Reuters.
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Russia’s border deployments stretch Ukrainian forces
To know Russia’s goals here, it is key to locate units and resources allocated in border areas in Russia: where and how many are staged- or if there are not enough staged. Either way, Ukrainian forces are now being stretched a bit to cope with this at a difficult time./end
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Where would new Russian forces come from? Reserves or withdrawn units?
Where would these Russian forces come from? As far as I can tell, there haven't been major reallocations from forces in occupied Ukraine, which implies this group would be created from reserves (inexperienced) or units that were withdrawn/regenerating (mixed) /10.
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Russia’s Kharkiv attack would divert reserves from Donetsk
Or, Russia is light on equipment for this effort, and attacks with infantry and light vehicles. Either way, if they attack Kharkiv, it draws Russia's reserves that otherwise could have been secondary reserves for their main objective, Donetsk, or elsewhere. /9
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Watch for increased UAV activity and potential armored vehicle commitment
Next few days, important to watch for increased VKS/UAV/FPV activity to map out and engage UAF defenses, continued shelling. In a worst case scenario, it creates favorable conditions for armored vehicle commitment. /8
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Estimating troops needed for 30km sanitary zone in Kharkiv
What is required to establish a sanitary zone of ~30KM across Kharkiv oblast? For personnel requirements close to the border I would estimate around two combined arms armies worth, perhaps 30,000-40,000 personnel over time and associated armored vehicles. /6
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Russia lacks forces for full oblast invasion and Kharkiv occupation
Capability: I've said previously that for Russia to invade the entire oblast, I think 75,000-100,000 personnel is ballpark and vehicles , which isn't in their grasp right now, nor do they have means to occupy a large city like Kharkiv. /5
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Ukrainian officials anticipate attack on Kharkiv and Sumy
Ukrainian officials have been anticipating an attack on Kharkiv/Sumy for some time. /5