Right now, both sides are jockeying for the "the most favourable position" ahead of potential talks. But meaningful negotiations can begin only in the second half of 2025 at the earliest, he guesses. By then, Russia will be facing serious "headwinds". 13/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Kharkiv faces dark days as Russian operation scale debated
"A quick operation to come in and come out: maybe. But an operation to take Kharkiv, or even Sumy city, is of a different order. The Russians know this. And we know this." In any event, dark days lie ahead for Kharkiv, a city of 1.2m people that rebuffed Russians in 2022” 10/ https://t.co/syntG7y8R7
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) 3 mai 2024"A quick operation to come in and come out: maybe. But an operation to take Kharkiv, or even Sumy city, is of a different order. The Russians know this. And we know this." In any event, dark days lie ahead for Kharkiv, a city of 1.2m people that rebuffed Russians in 2022” 10/
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Russia’s three-layer destabilization strategy for Ukraine
Skibitskiy says Russia will employ three layer strategy to destabilize Ukraine: 1. Military push 2. Disinformation campaign in Ukraine aimed at Ukrainian mobilisation and the political legitimacy of Zelensky 3. Campaign to isolate Ukraine internationally 11/
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Russian troops insufficient for major city capture
The Economist: This [number of Russian troops] is "not enough" for an operation to take a major city, the general says— a judgment shared by Western military officials, but could be enough for a smaller task 9/
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Russia’s new push on Kharkiv plausible as attacks intensify
I think a new push on Kharkiv is very plausible. Russia has recently increased attacks on Kharkiv, trying to make the city uninhabitable. So far, it has failed to drive the people and life out of the city, but they keep trying 8/
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Russian offensive planned for May/June on Sumy and Kharkiv
Russian main push will begin in May or June. They will try to attack Sumy and Kharkiv. Russians have 540K troops committed to Ukraine now, with 50-70K expected for Kharkiv Commentary: many say Zaporizhya may also be a target. 7/
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Russian forces break through defense, create 25 sq km salient
Russian forces succeeded in breaking through a first line of defence and have created a salient 25 square kilometres in size.
Ukraine is some way from stabilising the situation 5/ -
Economist: Russia tactical success after bungled Ukrainian rotation
The Economist: Russia has already won a tactical success in the southwest in the village of Ocheretyne, where a recent Ukrainian troop rotation was bungled. 4/
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Chasiv Yar fall imminent as Ukraine lacks weapons
It is a matter of time until Chasiv Yar falls. Our problems is simple – no weapons
— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) 3 mai 2024
Commentary: the interview took place before the U.S. weapons have been signed for delivery to Ukraine. So now much depends on logistics and bureaucracy
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pic.twitter.com/UoMdfIiP0mIt is a matter of time until Chasiv Yar falls. Our problems is simple – no weapons Commentary: the interview took place before the U.S. weapons have been signed for delivery to Ukraine. So now much depends on logistics and bureaucracy 3/
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Russia pushes for Donetsk and Luhansk, Chasiv Yar key
Skibitskiy says Russia will first push to get the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk. The immediate threat is Chasiv Yar. It is the key for Russia to access the last remaining large cities in the region, which are just 30-40 km away. 2/