Luxembourg joins Czech-led ammunition initiative for Ukraine. Luxembourg's Defense Minister Yuriko Backes also said that the defense ministry had recently delivered 6,000 155mm shells to Ukraine.

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If the West, specifically the United States, does not want to see the frontline in Ukraine bend or—even worse—break, it must urgently approve aid. And if Kyiv wants to sustain its efforts, it faces difficult choices for manpower regeneration. /end

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When Ukrainian forces are sufficiently manned, supplied, and entrenched, however, they have shown that they can inflict high costs on Russian forces and frustrate Russia’s ability to convert its on-paper advantages into decisive gains. /7

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Ukrainian frontline soldiers are in mounting jeopardy—not because they lack the will to fight or do not know their enemy’s weaknesses, but because of shortfalls in ammunition and manpower. /6

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Russia is pulling old equipment from strategic reserve to make up for losses and resource newly created units. Or as I call it, “The Last Ride of the Soviet Army.” It won’t matter if this equipment is old and less effective, if Ukraine is not resourced to destroy it. /5

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I discuss political constraints that Russia has on manpower regeneration, and its eroding ammo advantages by 2025 and 2026 if the Western industrial base hits its targets. This will matter very little if Ukraine is not resourced for 2024. /4

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Kyiv now finds itself in a sustainment crisis similar to what Moscow experienced by August 2022. Unlike Russia, Kyiv cannot mobilize its defense industry and quickly scale up production; it must rely on Western military assistance. Ukraine also has a smaller population. /3

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An irritating Kyiv bridgehead Defense Minister #SergeiShoigu told #Putin was totally “wiped out” is hanging tough weeks later, and now elite #UkrainianMarines have grabbed new real estate.

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Greenpeace warns ‘unprecedented escalation’ ifrestarts Zaporizhzhia Plant The warning came days after the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, met withPresident Vladimir Putin and discussed possibly restarting the plant.

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To create an effective strategy that capitalizes on Russia’s weaknesses, Western policymakers + observers need to see the Russian military for what it is: not the hapless, broken, depleted force that many wished it would be by now but a dangerous organization advancing in Ukraine

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