These asymmetric operations alone are not enough to inflict meaningful damage on Russia to stop their war in Ukraine. But coupled with direct ground operations, sanctions, political pressure and isolation they might eventually work. 12/

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There are sabotage operations far in the rear of Russia. Forbes recently reported a downturn in Russia's "Lancet" kamikaze drone production in 2023, possibly tied to an August explosion at the "Zagorsk Optical-Mechanical Plant" in Sergiev Posad. 10/

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Then, there are operations around Crimea carried out by Ukrainian Special Ops. Recently, they destroyed a Russian radar station and equipment aiding Russian drone attacks on southern Ukraine. 8/

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SOF statement: "Operators from the 73rd Naval Center of the SOF conducted a highly complex and effective operation near the coast of temporarily occupied Crimea, swiftly acting within the potential enemy strike zone." 9/

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Recent Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted Russia's oil infrastructure and supply lines, forcing changes in how Russia operates militarily. 6/

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Ukrainian attacks on Crimea continue too. The Air Forces have just reported a successful strike on the Belbek airfield in temporarily occupied Crimea on January 31. At least three enemy aircraft and personnel were assessed to be hit. 7/

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Ukraine is increasingly using naval and air drones to strike strategic Russian targets due to their long range, speed, maneuverability, and payload capacity. 5/

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According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ukraine military has disabled 24 Russian ships and one submarine. According to open-source data, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Russian Black Sea Fleet had 74 combat ships. This is about 33% 4/

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Here is a recent case in point (video above). Ukraine says it used 10 small "MAGURA" drones, powered by jet skis, to attack and sink the Russian warship Ivanovets in Crimea last week. 2/

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The Ukrainian Armed Forces have incapacitated a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's vessels. Given Ukraine's smaller size compared to Russia, it opts for asymmetrical warfare. This approach remains effective, challenging the notion of a stalemate in public perception 1/ pic.twitter.com/sLq6nhCHfu

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) 6 février 2024

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have incapacitated a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's vessels. Given Ukraine's smaller size compared to Russia, it opts for asymmetrical warfare. This approach remains effective, challenging the notion of a stalemate in public perception 1/

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