Kyiv air defense is beating the best expectations now
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Ukraine’s missile defense actively engaged
Ukraine’s missile defense in full swing now https://t.co/8JddzaJpqp
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) 25 février 2022Ukraine’s missile defense in full swing now
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Kyiv under heavy missile attack right now
Kyiv under heavy missile attack right now
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Russian Army’s unwillingness to fight for Putin may spark protests
Don't discount the RU Army's increasingly unwillingness to fight for Putin. They will see their *cause* as being suspect….if they don't already. And they will experience more battlefield deaths than they anticipated, which will cause even more protests at home. 14/
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Ukraine gains global allies while Putin faces scorn for atrocities
Add to this, Ukraine now has allies…all over the world. More support. Putin has turned the Russian effort into one receiving scorn, because of the lies and crimes HE has committed. That will worsen as RU forces continue to commit battlefield atrocities, which they will. 11/
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Ukraine’s defense will improve, wearing down enemy with low morale
Though Ukraine's initial defense wasn't great today, it will improve. Whether called an "insurgency" or a "guerilla war," UKR will wear down an enemy that already has low morale & an even lower support from their population back in mother RU (see protests). 13/
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Ukraine affronte une première journée difficile
Ukraine had a tough first day. Tomorrow will be tougher. Combined RU conventional, unconventional, cyber, air, arty & special ops tools will be tough to address. But Russia is still on the *offensive* so they have to act, and must continue to "move." They will wear down. 12/
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Russian force advantages in resources, artillery, and air superiority
The Russians currently have an advantage in resources. The quantity of their force provides a quality all its own, their equipment is relatively good (not great), their artillery and long range fires are devastating, and they have air superiority. But… 6/
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Mark Hertling uses battlefield math to explain Ukraine army confidence
After one of my @CNN appearances, one of the anchors asked me off-air why I had confidence in Ukraine's army to push back agains the illegal Russian military onslaught. I used a bit of "battlefield math" to explain my rationale. 1/16
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Russians establish checkpoints on Sumy-Kyiv highway
Russians have established checkpoints on the Sumy-Kyiv highway