Russia can still choose escalation. Rosin expects Moscow to target Ukraine's next winter and keep pushing for a pro Russia government in Kyiv. 8X
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Ukraine long-range drones hit Russian refineries and pipelines
The war also moves inside Russia. Ukraine's long range drones hit refineries, export hubs, and pipelines, and Rosin says the damage runs into the billions. 7/
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Forced mobilization for Donbas risks internal backlash like Sept 2022
If Moscow wants to take the rest of Donbas, Rosin says the only option is forced mobilization. That move risks internal backlash like Sept 2022, when men fled the draft. 6/
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Rubio quotes Russian losses of 15-20k dead, Ukraine claims 35k
Marco Rubio: "The Russians are losing 15 to 20,000 soldiers a month dead. Not injured, dead." Ukraine says April losses were about 35,203 killed or severely wounded. 4/
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Russia bleeds irreplaceable men, Kremlin avoids front stabilization, no total victory talk
Russia bleeds men it cannot replace, and the Kremlin avoids decisions that would stabilize the front. Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service: "I do not hear any more talk about total victory." Russians recognize the battlefield is not going well. 2/
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Putin may lose battlefield leverage in 4-5 months, says Estonia
Putin "may not be able to negotiate from a position of strength anymore," Estonia's intelligence chief said. In 4 to 5 months, Russia may lose the leverage it still has on the battlefield — CNN. 1/
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Melnyk rejects Nebenzya’s Moscow invitation, even post-defeat and reparations.
❗️Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Andriy Melnyk, gave a harsh response to Vasily Nebenzya’s invitation to visit Moscow. Melnyk stated that he would not go there even after Russia’s defeat, the fall of Putin’s regime, and the payment of reparations.
— 🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@front_ukrainian) 23 mai 2026
“Reconciliation… pic.twitter.com/8MtGULw5ibUkraine’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Andriy Melnyk, gave a harsh response to Vasily Nebenzya’s invitation to visit Moscow. Melnyk stated that he would not go there even after Russia’s defeat, the fall of Putin’s regime, and the payment of reparations. “Reconciliation
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Ukraine aims to increase Russian monthly losses to 50,000
Mykhailo Fedorov said Russia lost 35,203 troops killed or seriously wounded last month. Ukraine wants to push that to 50,000 a month. 8X
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Ukraine recaptures 189 sq km as Russia faces net territorial losses
The battlefield numbers in the same article show why this matters. The Economist and ISW data cited by The Times suggest Russia started taking net territorial losses again. Ukraine reportedly recaptured about 189 sq km in 30 days. 7/
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Ukraine launches ePoints program for verified strikes in Brave1
The program is ePoints. Ukraine launched it in 2024 inside Brave1, a defense-tech marketplace. Units earn points for verified strikes, then buy what they need from a live catalog. 2/