This is a hedge, but there is potential for several approaches:
-multiple efficient & effective combined arms “heavy” units conducting breaches & bypasses of RU defenses in key areas, regaining a lot of ground w/ SOF & territorials striking in the rear areas. 8/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Multiple combined arms heavy units breaching defenses with SOF
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Methodical breach with heavy armor and infantry to encircle RU forces
-a more methodical breach operations, massing heavy (armored) forces in fewer areas, with the idea of breaking through the front & breaking supply lines & encircling RU forces, while other “lighter” (infantry in “battlefield taxis”) break through & seize key terrain. 8/
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Upcoming Ukrainian offensive: task organizing equipment and units
The upcoming UKR offensive, IMHO, will have elements of both. What will be interesting is to see how the UAF have “task organized” (that is, places different equipment & types of units) in which areas of the front. 7/
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Ukraine offensive challenges Russian defenses without trained troops
The upcoming Ukraine operation will be challenging & tough. UAF will be on a large offensive w/ new equipment going against RU defensive positions that have been reinforced for 6 months. But without trained & well-led soldiers overwatching obstacles, RU defenses are useless.5/
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CIA Director Burns on UKR confidence and RU chaos
These “indicators” show a vast difference between solid UKR confidence & increasing RU chaos. This interview with @CIA Director Burns on the anniversary of the invasion last Feb has been on my mind. “Leaders” with hubris & cockiness aren’t leaders. 4/
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Russian dysfunction: Prigozhin messages, mutineers, anti-Putin attacks
Compare that to what’s happening on the Russian side, today:
-more messaging by Prigozhin about dysfunction in RU govt & military
-Russian mutineers killing commander before deserting
-anti-Putin militias continue attack in Shebekino & beyond 3/ -
Russian shelling kills two civilians in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast
On June 4, Russian occupation forces shelled Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, again, the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office reported. Law enforcement officials noted that two civilians aged 62 and 74 were killed as a result of enemy strikes. Residential buildings were also damaged.
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Ukrainian FPV drone hits Russian truck carrying personnel
⚡️🇺🇦Ukrainian FPV kamikaze drone hits a 🇷🇺Russian truck with personnel pic.twitter.com/SoAVfnSM3H
— 🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@front_ukrainian) 4 juin 2023Ukrainian FPV kamikaze drone hits a Russian truck with personnel
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Only half of Kyiv shelters ready
After more than 15 months of Russia's war against Ukraine, only half of the 1,078 bomb shelters in Kyiv checked by a government commission are ready for use, Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin said.
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Seven-year-old Odesa girl wins gymnastics with bionic prosthesis
A seven-year-old girl from Odesa competes and wins in a gymnastics competition with a bionic prothesis.
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) 4 juin 2023
Sasha Pascal lost her leg to a Russian missile attack a year ago.
Daily and nightly attacks on residential areas of Ukrainian cities continue.#RussianWarCrimes https://t.co/W56xbN0BYSA seven-year-old girl from Odesa competes and wins in a gymnastics competition with a bionic prothesis. Sasha Pascal lost her leg to a Russian missile attack a year ago. Daily and nightly attacks on residential areas of Ukrainian cities continue. #RussianWarCrimes
