21/ V. Zelensky achieved two more diplomatic successes by participating in the G7 as well as the Arab League summit.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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20 per month: unlikely counter-offensive, no magic weapon, after Bakhmut
20/ month. That is to say that it is unlikely that this will serve for the famous counter-offensive. Anyway, there is no magic weapon, I have repeated many times (LV 210 https://lettrevigie.com/blog/2023/02/01/la-vigie-n-210-il-ny-a-pas-darme-magique-larriere-tiendra-t-il-lorgnette-processus-de-paix/ …). We will return in La Vigie n°218, to be published Wednesday, on the aftermath of Bakhmut.
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Ukrainian Political Victories: F16s for Kyiv and Counteroffensive Ahead
18/ This offensive is indeed on everyone's mind, and from this perspective, the Ukrainians have achieved significant political successes this week, counterbalancing the loss of Bakhmut. First and foremost, the Americans stated they do not oppose the transfer of F16s to Kyiv.
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Loss of Ukrainian city: cost and commitment of counter-offensive units
17/ On the Ukrainian side, the loss of the city does not sound like a major defeat, even if it had to be ceded. The only question that matters is: 'at what cost?'. Some suggest that units intended for the counter-offensive were committed to the defense of the city.
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Slim success and end of belief in a quick takeover of the Donbass
16/ consequently towards Russian public opinion. Slim success however, although it serves a long-term strategy we have already discussed. On the other hand, no one believes anymore in the possibility of a quick takeover of the Donbass by the Russians.
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Fall of Bakhmut: Expected Victory Exploited by Moscow
15/ Political assessment: In media terms, the fall of Bakhmut was so expected that it does not resonate like a thunderclap. Certainly, it constitutes a victory for Moscow after the many setbacks of last year. It will surely be exploited.
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Ukrainians observe the south, explosion in Lviv, strike on Patriot
14/ For Ukrainians, observing the southern sector with a particular eye on Vuhledar. Note the explosion of a munitions depot near Lviv earlier this week, as well as a strike on the Ukrainian DSA in Kyiv, which reportedly damaged a Patriot battery.
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Wagner militia returns to regular Russian army and monitors Avdiivka and Siversk (short)
13/ The Wagner militia should hand over the city to the regular Russian army and then regroup at the rear. The future will tell where it is redeployed. We must now monitor Avdiivka to the south and Siversk to the north as possible axes of Russian effort.
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Khromove line, Ivanivske, Klichkivka: frozen sector
12/ of a line joining the cemetery of Khromove, the eastern edges of Ivanivske, the northern edges of Klichkivka. The Russians may push to take Ivanivske, even if unlikely. The sector seems probably frozen for some time.
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Bakhmut falls to Russia, but westward advance remains uncertain
10/ Everyone has gained time. Finally, Bakhmut remains a road junction that is now in Russian hands. However, this does not mean they can push resolutely to the west.