Whether holding Bakhmut makes military sense is best judged later. This is an incomplete picture at best, and UA has no easy options: hold, withdraw, counter attack, move up spring offensive timing. But over the past month Wagner forces have advanced further into the city. 20/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

The reason behind Russia's change in approach remains unclear: an inability to cut off the supply route, troop exhaustion, concerns over exposed flanks, infighting between Wagner and the General Staff, or worries about committing reserves and becoming bogged down in Bakhmut as Ukraine's spring offensive approaches.

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Russia has just begun processing the biannual conscript intake, enrolling 147,000, a significant increase compared to recent years. For more on this check out CIT’s recent posts. 16/ https://t.co/bF5NahmSXB

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) 4 avril 2023

Russia has just begun processing the biannual conscript intake, enrolling 147,000, a significant increase compared to recent years. For more on this check out CIT’s recent posts. 16/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

The Russian military likely has the manpower and reserves to mount a stubborn defense, along with minefields and entrenchments. This doesn't mean Ukraine can't break Russian lines, but past offensives suggest that Ukraine has challenges sustaining momentum after a breakthrough is achieved. 11/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Some brigades will be equipped entirely with Western AFVs. However, they may be composed of recently mobilized personnel, and on a very tight training regimen. Operating cohesively as units, and attempting combined arms maneuver may prove difficult. 9/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

I hold to the argument in an earlier thread, that Gerasimov is exhausting the force with an ill-timed feckless set of offensive operations, whose gains will not change the strategic picture for Russia, but could leave Russian forces more vulnerable. 7/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Consequently, the Russian offensive is going about as poorly as expected. The question is how much will Russian forces exhaust themselves and be forced to ration ammunition. Putin has publicly commented on artillery ammunition constraints forcing them to limit use. 6/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Many of the complaint videos appear to originate from around Avdiivka, where Russian mobilized territorial troops have been assigned to the DNR’s corps. They are being rotated onto the battlefield in battalion or company-sized units and thrown into infantry assaults.

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

At Vuhledar Russian forces fed the better parts of two brigades into UA minefields and ATGMs, then eventually switched to Avdiivka. There they created a partial encirclement, but UA may have stabilized the situation at this point (its unclear). 3/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Explosions reported in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast now.

→ View original post on X — @euromaidanpr