Russia claimed that Ukraine did not fulfill Minsk agreement. We disagree but even if it were true, Russia did not fulfill it either and refused to meet wit Zelensky to renegotiate them. But regardless of that, the situation around Minsk agreements did not justify the invasion 15
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Russia’s strategy: diplomacy failure before full invasion
After the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of the East of Ukraine, we and the world tried sanctions and diplomacy. Minsk I, then Minsk II, then multiple ceasefires. None worked. Russia consistently sabotaged diplomacy until it got ready for another, full scale invasion. 14/
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Russia’s Crimea Fleet Agreement and 2014 Annexation
In 2000s, Ukraine has also extended the rights for Russia and its fleet to stay in Crimea. On the conditions Russia wanted. The result – Russia used those conditions to bring troops to annex Crimea. 13/
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Budapest Memorandum violated: Ukraine’s sovereignty guarantee broken
In 1994 we signed the Budapest memorandum that guaranteed Ukraine peace and sovereignty. Ukraine has not broken a single letter of that memorandum, and yet Crimea was annexed and Ukraine was invaded in other areas in 2014 and 2022 11/
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Russia must stop war and leave Ukraine
The second scenario is to finally take the situation seriously and work towards a sustainable peace. This requires for Russia to stop the war and move out of Ukraine. It won’t be done easily, Russia will have to forced out. 9/
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Ceasefire without Russian withdrawal would cement invasion gains
Negotiations and ceasefire before Russia withdraws troops from Ukraine will cement the results of invasion exactly in the same way as it happened after 2014-2016. There will long rounds of meetings, stalling, propaganda, and victim blaming by Russia. 8/
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Strategic debate on negotiation options and Russian tactics
If we are brave enough to admit the reality, then there are really two choices. First, open negotiations now and freeze the situation as is with Russia continuing attacks at a smaller scale (to give lip service to “peace and ceasefire” and to regroup their troops). 6/
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Russia seeks territorial gains in negotiations, analysis
We should be honest to ourselves. Russia want negotiation now, before it withdraws from Ukraine. It wants to negotiate about the new border. It wants to keep the territories it occupied and it wants to stop fighting so it does not risk loosing those territories. 5/
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Negotiations amid Russian attacks and Ukrainian deportations
Are willing to negotiate while Russia continues to attack Bakhmatov, torture Ukrainians in the occupied territories, and deport Ukrainian children to Russia? 3/
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Negotiation Conditions and Russian Withdrawal from Ukraine
It is hypocritical to call occupation and annexation “peace”. Georgia raises tough questions. What are the real conditions to open negotiation meetings? Should or should not Russia be asked to cease aggression and withdraw military? Or are we willing to negotiate before that?2/
