After Yakovlivka was captured RuAF had the upper hand, the AFU had exhausted a lot of their combat potential during the fall offensive.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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RuAF captures Yakovlivka in December using mobilized personnel
RuAF managed to capture Yakovlivka in early December after committing more resources to the area (VDV). At this point RuAF gradually started introducing more and more of the personnel which was mobilized in October.
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Realization about costly offensives west of Dnipro leads to withdrawal
I also think they realized they would not be able to do any kind of offensives west of the Dnipro and deemed it too costly to try to keep it. They could instead withdraw their units, reconstitute their combat potential and use them elsewhere.
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AFU attacks RuAF supply lines in Kherson, RuAF adapts
Once that was done, AFU stepped up their effort to attack RuAF GLOC in the Kherson region, especially bridges and barges. While having some initial success surprising RU logistics, RuAF quickly adapted using barges from different launch locations.
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AFU launches ground assaults in Kherson region
During this period, the AFU conducted ground assaults in both the southern and northern parts of the Kherson region, with mixed results—mostly unsuccessful. However, they achieved some success in the northern sector, which proved to be the most challenging area for Russian Aerospace Forces (RuAF) to supply.
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Ukraine hits Russian logistics with HIMARS
During this period, Ukraine accumulated equipment and trained troops while beginning to strike Russian logistic targets with HIMARS. At the same time, the Russian Air Force decided to relocate nearly all their VDV units, as well as Eastern and Central Military District forces, away from the Kharkiv region.
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Ukraine builds offensive potential while facing resource shortages
Ukraine spend the summer training and building offensive potential in their units while defending all along the frontline with minimal resources, There were multiple reports from the frontlines about them not having enough resources
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Russian offensive pace unsustainable, likely to slow in coming months
RuAF have been on the offensive for more than 1.5 month now and offensive operations like that does wear on both equipment, personnel and local ammunition stocks. I do not see them continuing this pace of attacks for more than another month or so. Many unknown variables.
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RuAF advances in Bakhmut and Avdiivka; reserves doubted
RuAF are slowly advancing in both Bakhmut and Avdiivka. There has been a few reports about RuAF not having any reserves behind the lines, but I'm not sure I believe them.
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Avdiivka – Donetsk: Army repels attacks near towns
Avdiivka – Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area Krasnohorivka, Kam’yanka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Sjeverne, Berdychi, Pervomais’ke, and Mar’inka