Near Donetsk, the situation is evolving rapidly with the formation of a new semi-encirclement around Avdiivka. In other words, all signs point to a scenario similar to what we are observing in Bakhmut. We must now wait for the upcoming offensives…
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Analysis of Russian Operational Slowness: Exhaustion, Ammunition, Support, and Climax
14/ As for the Russians, why such slowness? Troop exhaustion, lack of ammunition, men, support? Yet, much more air support is reported than in the past. Let's keep the hypothesis of a climax in mind.
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Brigade Strategy: Gaining Time and Exploiting Defensive Position
12/ So why? To gain time, of course, to complete the formation of new brigades being announced everywhere; To take advantage of a city that must be heavily mined and trapped, a formidable defensive position to cling to; To preserve depth
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Political Communication: Russian Caution and Ukrainian Attrition Under Study
11/ this is part of the political communication game. The caution with which the Russians are investing the city suggests that the attrition sought is not working as much as desired. On the contrary, some are alarmed by the level of Ukrainian losses in the battle.
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Ukrainian Military Strategy and the City’s Importance: A Questioning
10/ Military Assessment: The course of the fighting raises more questions than answers. Why are the Ukrainians clinging on so tightly? Let's overlook the declarations now claiming the city is strategic (Kyiv had previously explained it had no importance),
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Conflicts in Dubrovo and attacks to the west
9/ Above all, they have occupied the village of Dubrovo and are advancing to the west: Orikhovo-Vasilivka is contested, fighting would be taking place toward Zalinianske and near Vasiukivka, further north.
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Cautious Russian Advance in Bakhmut: Crossing Bakhmutka and North/South Progress
8/ The Russians advanced cautiously, slowly: they began crossing the Bakhmutka, they progressed north to the outskirts of the Azom industrial complex, and they finally advanced more clearly to the south. They are pushing on either side of Ivanivske.
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Ukrainians resist in Avdiivka despite encirclement
Ukrainian forces continue their resistance in the city. They have reportedly deployed troops in Ivanivske and Khromovo to keep the pincers apart and continue supplying forces inside the city.
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Ukrainian advances near Donetsk and Bakhmut
Between Donetsk and Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces have managed to capture some positions near Mayorsk, just north of Horlivka. In Bakhmut, the situation has evolved very slowly to the point that I wondered, mid-week, whether the Russians were exhausted.
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Russian advances near Krasnohorivka and Kamyanka
Additionally, they have established positions near the village of Krasnohorivka (which has not been captured, contrary to false rumors). South of Vesele, Russian forces have advanced along the reservoir and are fighting near Kamyanka.