"(Putin) was unable to do so due to the lack of such victories and amidst heightened criticism of the Kremlin’s management of the war," the ISW said.

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ISW: Putin is unlikely to announce new Russian mobilization initiatives in his address on Feb. 21. Vladimir Putin is unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine or major Russian mobilization initiatives in his address to the Federal Assembly.

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"Putin postponed his annual address to the Federal Assembly several times in 2022, likely in hopes of eventually using this speech to celebrate sweeping Russian victories in Ukraine," the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment on Feb. 15.

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Sandu’s comments came a week after President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had intercepted plans by Russian secret services to destroy Moldova. Moldovan intelligence officials later confirmed those claims.

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As I said: It is now a race between RU mobilization and UKR force preparedness and transformation. The next few weeks will see tough fights, some back and forth, false declarations by RU of "victory." But a Ukrainian spring is coming. 9/9

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UKR is countering with a rabid defense in the Donbas and smaller offensives in Kherson. They are defending against missile launches from multiple directions. They are integrating multiple new weapons systems and the related logistics. They are doing IPB. 7/

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The Army in the east – Prigozhin's criminals or Gerasimov's "soldiers" – are not ready for any kind of offensive, large or small. They are "cannon fodder" or "cannon meat." Putin forces action now, because he's concerned about future UA offensive. 5/

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While ordering this, Putin prepares more missile strikes from what he has – planes & ships – to force Ukraine to do two things: fight on the front, and defend the population with air defense. Putin is also now attacking from N &S with these strikes. 6/

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There are various estimates of how many "soldiers" (& criminals) RU has mobilized & sent to the front. I'd guess it's equal to or slightly greater than the initial invasion force (190K). But as I've said many times, these are untrained forces. 3/

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RU have been physically moved to "training locations," given shoddy equipment, seen the same poor leadership, & sent to the front without an understanding of what they were to do. In western language, "their recruiters lied to them!" 4/

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