I also doubt they will attempt a counterattack in the Donbas, between Siversk and Donetsk. There is then only one option left: the southern front, from Zaporizhzhia to Vuhledar. This is why the town of Orikhiv is so crucial: from there, an offensive could be launched.

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Today we see the Russians moving out of this line and slowly pushing back the Ukrainians. They will soon find themselves in the same position as the Russians on the right bank of the Dnieper: with troops in front of a fairly wide river.

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Throughout the autumn, they struggled to advance in the Svatove and Kreminna region (employing the same attrition tactics now used by the Russians). However, these positions held despite the topographical disadvantages.

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The losses they suffer also force them to mobilize, with the same difficulties as the Russians; it takes time to train a soldier, it takes time to train a crew (of a tank, of a cannon, of every military system). Certainly this training can be done

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Let's now examine Ukraine's capabilities. After the surprise of Russian offensives over the past eight weeks, they appear to have restored their defenses without being overly stretched. Perhaps they have managed to keep fresh units in reserve, ready to prepare a counterattack.

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9/ The Russian push from Kreminna continues: Russian advances are near the outskirts of Torske. At the very north, the village of Dvorichne has reportedly been recaptured and the Ukrainians would have crossed back to the other side of the Oskil, at Dvorichna.

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10/ Military assessment. Let's take stock: apart from Krasna Hora and Dorichne, the week saw no significant Russian advances. This suggests that the Russians are losing momentum. However, Ukrainian intelligence warns of a major upcoming Russian offensive.

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8/ Further north: Russian pressure not too insistent against the Fedorivka–Vesele line, while Spirne remains in Ukrainian hands. A bit further north, they would have ceded part of the village of Bolohorivka (but we have no visual evidence).

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Ukrainians are left with just one supply route to Bakhmut, the one passing through Khromove, which is also under Russian indirect fire. For now, Bakhmut has not fallen into Russian hands.

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Within the city itself, progress is slow towards the eastern outskirts. Ukrainian forces still hold both bridges over the Bakhmutka River, though one appears threatened. Russian efforts are actually concentrated in the north.

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