I believe the deciding factors during the spring/summer will be the level of training and ammunition availability. It will be very important for Ukraine to actually be able to maneuver effectively with the new mechanized equipment provided by the West.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Ukraine’s strategy shift: Small attacks for spring offensive advantage
If Ukraine now can swap to seek opportunities to do smaller local attacks, especially in the north rather than trying to advance, they could possibly attrit the RU elite forces enough to get in a good position for a spring offensive.
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RuAF commits VDV, naval infantry, and Wagner in Vulhedar, Bakhmut, Kreminna
It seems RuAF are willing to commit their VDV and Naval infantry in the Vulhedar, Bakhmut and Kreminna area. These as well as the wagner cannon fodder have proven during the course of the war to be the most effective. They have also proven to be effective in defense.
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Ukraine secures major aid packages and ongoing talks
Ukraine has just secured some large aid packages, with even more discussions currently taking place. Their forces should no longer be seen as symbolic wins to demonstrate progress to the world.
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Ukraine’s best path: Aggressive defense over offense for future success
I believe the best way for Ukraine to secure future success and preserve offensive potential is to swap to more of an aggressive defense rather than offense.
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Russian forces suffer two major defeats attacking Vuhledar head-on.
A change in pace might indicate movement along the frontline and a change of tactic. Ru forces have suffered large defeats twice trying to attack Vuhledar head on with some of their best units.
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Ukraine may abandon Bakhmut in 2-4 weeks
If Russian advances continue at the current pace, Ukraine may have to abandon Bakhmut within 2-4 weeks. This could be prevented or the timeline altered if the AFU manages to halt, reverse, or slow Russian progress. Consider this a warning to prepare mentally rather than a definitive prediction.
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Bakhmut’s main supply roads now extremely dangerous
The situation is getting worse in Bakhmut, both of the main supply roads in to the town are now extremely dangerous, to travel. There are a few smaller less suitable roads which might still be safe to use.
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Bakhmut: AFU repulse attacks, Ru forces advance near Klishchiivka canal
Bakhmut S
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka and Ozaryanivka. As can be seen, Ru forces have managed to advance along the canal in the forest belt NW of Klishchiivka. Still unclear if AFU lost their fortified positions N of Klishchiivka. -
M03 road in use, AFU potential pullback behind Bakhmutovka River
I do not think the bigger road has been M03 has been in full use for a while. Another ting to look out for is if AFU decide to pull back behind the Bakhmutovka River inside the city. It might be a sing of a pending withdrawal from the city.