27/ For Ukrainians, several options present themselves. Either to continue defending the front as they have always done since the war began. This obviously depends on their available reserves, in men or in guns. Let us note that for several

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💥Sniper of the Ukrainian battalion of Chechen volunteers named after Sheikh Mansur in the village of Opytne on the outskirts of Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/JAmudeWx28

— 🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@front_ukrainian) 15 janvier 2023

Sniper from the Ukrainian Chechen volunteer battalion named after Sheikh Mansur, operating in the village of Opytne on the outskirts of Bakhmut.

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We can therefore expect the Russians to push in this direction. Encirclement of Siversk would clearly facilitate their resistance east of Kreminna. However, the Russians will also push south of Bakhmut.

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Cutting off these two axes would mechanically lead to the loss of Bakhmut. Note that this morning, a Washington Post article mentioned the hypothesis of a Ukrainian evacuation of the city. Without being pessimistic, the fall of Soledar deeply weakens Bakhmut's position.

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On 19/ in the Bakhmutka River valley, Ukrainian forces could strike enemy positions in the hollow with their firepower, provided the Russians fail to reach the ridge. Note that they are already near Klishchiivka. The Ukrainians can therefore either continue

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By rearticulating before relaunching the action. Both are possible, and the precedent of Popasna in May-June lends credibility to both interpretations. However, it seems difficult for the Ukrainians to move forward in the area. On the other hand, the arrival of the Russians

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Locally, a slowdown in Russian advances can be observed during the latter part of the week. This may be due to 1/ A relative weariness of Russian forces, which may have been exhausted in the conquest of Soledar: this is the Ukrainian narrative.

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According to some sources, after striking electrical relay stations over the past few weeks, the Russians are said to have this time targeted power plants, such as in Ivano-Frankivsk. Power outages are widespread across the country.

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On Saturday, a new missile strike campaign hit Ukraine. It unfolded in two stages, likely the first to activate surface-to-air defenses, the second salvo to strike them and target targets, including civilians.

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On the southwestern outskirts of the town, further ahead, Russian pressure (still contained) is observed near Dylivka and Bila Hora.

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