With Gerasimov in charge, if this is indeed permanent, I think the possibly of the Russians asking their tired force to do something that it cannot handle rises exponentially. Gerasimov didn't push back in Feb 2022 and won't do it now. IDK if that is good or bad for Ukraine. /9
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Loyal to Putin, Gerasimov and Shoygu sidelined from command
..But they are loyal to Putin and the system so they were kept on. Gerasimov and Shoygu for months now have been sidelined from the main command of the operation. As criticism of them mounted from some quarters. /7
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Shoigu and Gerasimov blamed for destroying Russian forces
Under Shoygu and Gerasimov’s command, a large percentage of the Ground Forces and Airborne forces (equipment and personnel) were destroyed. Thousands of both are gone. This leadership is so negligent that it should have been grounds for dismissal in any normal system.. /6
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Gerasimov and Shoygu’s failed command blamed for high casualties
Contrast with Gerasimov and Shoygu’s command record for this war: it’s a flunk. They flunked it. They signed off on a secret plan, multiple bad assumptions, didn't tell the majority of their troops. led to big casualties and a partially broken force /5 https://
nytimes.com/interactive/20
22/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html
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Russia demotes competent commander Surovikin, promotes Gerasimov amid infighting
Today Shoygu and Gerasimov demoted Surovikin, and put Gerasimov in charge of the operation in Ukraine, demoting their most competent senior commander and replacing him with an incompetent one. This is a story that has it all: infighting, power struggles, jealousy /1
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Donetsk: AFU repulse attacks as focus shifts to Soledar
Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Vodyane, Nevelske, Krasnohorivka, Maryinka and Prechistivka. Everyone is focusing on Soledar, especially they Russians since this is the greatest achievement by them since June. That means not a lot of info is coming out of Donetsk. -
RU MoD declares capture of Pidhorodne, Ukraine holds heights
RU MoD declared they captured Pidhorodne. I believe this is technically true, I don't think Ukraine tried to hold it, but instead are holding the heights north and south of it. The village it self is not a good position to hold.
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Soledar: Strategic stakes and fighting ahead
Soledar itself is not very important, but Russia needs to take it to be able to cut Ukraine’s supply route to the north. The interesting part, if Soledar is lost, will be to see whether Ukraine can hold the Paraskoviivka, Krasna Hora and Krasnopolivka line.
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AFU repels attacks near Bakhmut; Soledar largely under Russian control
Bakhmut N
The AFU repulsed attacks around Spirne, Rozdolivka, Vesele and Bakhmut. The situation in Soledar is still unclear, but it think it's likely RU forces control about 75% of it. -
Kupyansk-Soledar: AFU repelled attacks, rumors of progress near Stel’makhivka
Kupyansk-Soledar
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Hryanykivka and Stel'makhivka. No significant change, but I saw rumors about AFU making some progress in the Stel'makhivka direction. Regarding Kreminna, no news is good news, this means RU are defending and not attacking.