Mobilization, and its potential downstream effect 3-4 months from now introduces a degree of uncertainty. It could extend the war, or make future UA offensives more costly, but I think UA is preparing for a range of possibilities depending on what mobilization yields. 12/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Incertitude sur la défense de Kherson par la Russie
Still, it remains unclear whether RU intends to fight for Kherson city, perhaps using more expendable or mobilized units while preserving better troops. I'm skeptical RU will abandon all positions on that side without being forcibly pressed out, but could be wrong on this. 7/
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Forcing a Russian retreat from Kherson: advantages and risks
Forcing a Russian retreat from Kherson’s right bank will bring Ukrainian systems within range of some ground lines of communication from Crimea. But, it will also give Russian forces a large natural barrier, less terrain to defend, and a higher force density to terrain ratio. 8/
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Winter war continues; Ukraine to use range and precision against Russia
Overall, it seems unlikely that the war will die down over the winter, even if some months make offensive operations challenging. UA will likely leverage its advantage in range and precision to attrit the Russian military over this period. 9/
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Ukrainians optimistic to push Russia out of Kherson by year’s end; dam risk
UA folks I spoke to seemed optimistic they can press Russia out of Kherson (west of the river) by the end of the year. There are outstanding questions about the Khakovka dam, and whether RU might sabotage it upon withdrawal. This issue is more salient than talk of RDDs. 6/
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Ukraine war effort: morale high, friction seen up close
The general sense one gets is that Ukraine is winning the war & morale is high, but like any military operation, you see friction up close that you can’t from a distance. A fair bit of the UA effort is ground up, based on horizontal linkages, volunteers, apps, etc. 2/
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North Korea sending artillery shells to Russia
#NorthKorea Shipping Artillery Shells to #Russia – White House The #WhiteHouse has accused North Korea of shipping a “significant” amount of artillery shells to help Russia in its ongoing brutal invasion of #Ukraine. Read more on our website. https://
kyivpost.com/world/north-ko
rea-shipping-artillery-shells-to-russia-white-house.html
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Verkhovna Rada dismisses community development minister
With 279 votes, the Verkhovna Rada has approved the dismissal of Oleksiy Chernyshov from the position of Minister of Development of Communities and Territories, reported MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak. The former minister was considered for the role of head of the state oil and gas company Naftogaz.
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Microsoft to donate $100M tech aid to Ukraine
#Microsoft to donate technological help worth $100 million to #Ukraine
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Disappearance of the RF flag at Kherson Regional State Administration – a provocation? OK South
The disappearance of the Russian flag from the building of the Kherson Regional State Administration may be a provocation, says OK South