This chart helped me analyzed the RU & UKR armies during the last 7 months. Warfighting Functions (along w/ "battlefield math," battlefield conditions, strategic/operational/tactical leadership & objectives) have helped me "see" & evaluate preparation, actions, & reactions. 6/

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Last week, @SpyTalker published a solid piece commenting on how RU's lack of an NCO Corps were the chief cause of failure in UKR. It not the only one, but it's a huge contributor. We'll see implications of that as winter approaches A new 1/17

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19/ hoping for a localized collapse of the opponent in order to gain ground or reduce it more easily. The micro-tactical modalities differ: more close-range artillery for the Russians, more raids at the section or company level on the Ukrainian side.

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Which links Kremmina to Svatove, notably near Chervonopopivka. Ukrainian advances are repelled by the Russians, but the sense remains that gradually the line is moving eastward and that the Russians are slightly retreating in this sector.

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14/ Further north, there has been no breakthrough in Bakhmut or Soledar, although fierce fighting continues there. It is now certain that these battles are taking place in the eastern outskirts of both towns, not just at the edges. Factories and hamlets are being taken and retaken.

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Some rumors suggest that Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing from the village of Opytne. This remains unconfirmed. If the offensive continues, the capture of the Vodyane–Opytne line would be bad news for Kyiv: the large town of Avdiivka, just to the north, currently blocks the entire western part of Donetsk.

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11/ qui a été une ligne de front depuis 2014, les Russes pousseraient également : ils auraient atteint et dépassé la circulaire M4 au nord de Pisky. Ils seraient ainsi à l’entrée sud-est de Vodyane tandis que le village de Opytne serait encagé sur trois côtés.

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10/ Eastern Front of Donetsk: Just north of Novomykhalivka, the Russians are still in Marinka. If they manage to push back the Ukrainians from the area, the entire southwest of Donetsk city would be cleared. A bit further north, towards Donetsk airport,

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9/ (which also connects to the Eastern Donetsk front). The Russians are said to have taken Pavlivka (all or part? this remains to be clarified) and are pushing toward Novomykhalivka. The Ukrainians are withdrawing toward Vodiane.

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6/ on the other side of the Dnieper; that the fall of Kherson would take at least "some time." In short, a localized collapse of the Russians is possible, as they have shown they are quite capable of it. Likewise, continued Ukrainian pressure is weighing in.

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