11/ You also don't need to be all that well trained to defend a position. Ukraine's territorial defence forces proved that last spring in the defence of Kyiv. Russia's soldiers are poorly trained anyway, so giving new ones a couple of weeks' basic training isn't much different.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Combat Effectiveness Drops After 140-180 Days, Many Fighting Over 200
8/ This is very important because well-established evidence shows that combat effectiveness falls off quite rapidly – within 140-180 days. Many have now been fighting for more than 200 days. From John Keegan's 'The Face of Battle':
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Russia’s army bleeding: Hundreds quitting, not just killed or injured.
6/ So to a significant extent, I think this is about stopping the bleeding of the Russian army. The stats for killed and injured don't capture the large numbers who have simply quit and are just as much hors de combat as someone who's been killed or crippled.
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Putin’s war justification fails to convince soldiers, hurting morale
5/ Putin again tried to justify the war as being in 'defence' of Donbas and 'Novorossiya' (Zaporizhzhia and Kherson). But soldiers' own accounts show that many simply don't believe this and don't know why they're in Ukraine. Again, bad for morale. pic.twitter.com/y76Skju7hT
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) 21 septembre 20225/ Putin again tried to justify the war as being in 'defence' of Donbas and 'Novorossiya' (Zaporizhzhia and Kherson). But soldiers' own accounts show that many simply don't believe this and don't know why they're in Ukraine. Again, bad for morale.
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Contracts extended indefinitely, bad for morale, soldiers signed for benefits, not death.
4/ This move will be very bad for morale. Soldiers whose contracts were due to expire this autumn will now be stuck in the army indefinitely. This is a big deal: a great many signed up for the economic benefits, not to fight and die.
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Russia’s new decree effectively bans soldiers from leaving Ukraine
3/ But the Russian army has been making that increasingly difficult. Some soldiers have reportedly been kept in Ukraine despite their contracts running out in May. Putin's new decree effectively bans anyone leaving (except on certain narrow grounds, of which more later).
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Russian soldiers’ morale in Ukraine
Second, morale. As I've previously documented from Russian soldiers' accounts and intercepted phone calls published by Ukraine, many Russian soldiers are badly demoralised and want to go home. 20-40% of the men from some units have reportedly quit.
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Putin’s partial mobilisation: logistical, political, and troop implications
1/ There'll be lots of commentary this morning about the logistical difficulties of Putin's announcement of a partial mobilisation. But I thought I'd add a few points, based on my own personal observations, of what it means politically and for the troops already in Ukraine.
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Lyubov, Ukrainians will not solve your internal problems
Lyubov, no offense, but who is your doctor? Why should Ukrainians solve your internal political problems for you? We are busy defending our territory, and all you want is to leave quickly and wait it out "behind the border". Well, that's not how it works.
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Russia likely lost 4 fighter jets in 10 days, total 55 since invasion
“#Russia has highly likely lost at least four combat jets in #Ukraine within the last 10 days, taking its attrition to approximately 55 since the start of the #invasion,” the ministry stated on Tuesday, 20 September. https://
kyivpost.com/russias-war/ru
ssia-highly-likely-lost-four-fighter-jets-in-last-ten-days-uk-mod.html
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