The occupiers' playbook in action. As #Russia moves ahead with fake referenda in occupied territories of #Ukraine, let me say it loud and clear: We will never recognize this. Ukraine has every right to take back its territory. Donbas, Crimea, Kherson = it's all Ukraine. 1/2

→ View original post on X — @kajakallas

In sum, Russia prepped for months that it can stop Ukraine and its backers with annexation and threats. probably to include a bogus ceasefire option and nuclear saber rattling. I don't see Moscow's plan working. Then what could come next is a Russian lash out. (/8)

→ View original post on X — @massdara

Escalation could be missile strikes on Ukraine, cyber attacks, counterspace effects, brandishing nuclear weapons (1st step: exercises or movements). These are part of a coercive toolkit. Russia's options are narrowing, stakes are increasing, pressure mounting to show any victory.

→ View original post on X — @massdara

We are entering an inevitable next phase of this conflict. The fact that Russia is tightening penalties and preparing for mobilization suggests they still believe they have operational-level options before escalating further. However, as I noted, the mobilization base is in poor shape.

→ View original post on X — @massdara

Ukraine has made it clear it will reject annexation or this kind of ploy. The Kremlin's design is to also frighten Ukraine's supporters with escalating stakes and violence(with a background energy crisis). They've signaled as much with their strikes this week. (/3)

→ View original post on X — @massdara

{Sigh} It's here at last. As i wrote, referendums to annex Ukrainian territory into Russia. They've been laying this groundwork for months. Today, accompanied by harsher penalties for desertion and refusals. Here are considerations for what's next (1/)

→ View original post on X — @massdara

Why the urgency in the Kremlin and the D/LNR to pull off these referenda? Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive has shocked and worried them. Kyiv has the momentum. And its forces are still on the move, as the likely recapture of Lyman (waiting for official confirmation) shows.

→ View original post on X — @christopherjm

Many Ukrainian servicemen went missing in the war in 2022. But there are also civilians missing who had nothing to do with the Armed Forces. Find out how their relatives search for them in our story. https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/my-daugh-ter-asks-me-every-day-where-is-my-dad-how-people-search-for-their-relatives-who-went-missing-in-the-war

→ View original post on X — @hromadske

It does seems like things could be heading that direction. In short, Putin moving to forcibly annex Donetsk and Luhansk to provide option of a pretext for declaration of war and mobilization in Russia if Ukraine doesn’t halt its counteroffensive (which it won’t & shouldn’t do).

→ View original post on X — @christopherjm