17/ More seriously, it goes without saying that if they could have, they would have kept the zones they had. It's obvious. However, in war, one acts on 3 factors: time, forces, and terrain. We have spoken enough about time on the occasion of this long war.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Analysis of Russian Military Reversals: Territorial Losses and Strategic Withdrawals
15/ Military Assessment: Last week's RU setback is undeniable, as they lost control of several thousand km². However, some of these territories were voluntarily ceded. The entire deployment north of Kharkov withdrew in good order.
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RU Retreat North of Kupyansk and Izyum: Little Equipment, Few Prisoners
16/ Same for everything that was north of Kupyansk and probably for a good part of the Izyum FOB. We saw very little equipment (often of poor quality, perhaps broken down) and few RU prisoners. As if the RU were only good at retreating!
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Davydi Brod in Russian hands, Inhulets dam with little tactical effect
13/ On the other hand, they did not take Davydi Brod, still in RU hands, who broke a dam on the Inhulets to cut off crossing points on the Inhulets: this does not seem to have had much tactical effect.
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Northern Territorial Disputes and Central Ukrainian Pockets
12/ In the North, areas held by RU are contested: Novovoskresenske, Ilyaivka, quite far South of the line observed last time. In the center, UKR holds the pocket of Sukhy Stavok, extended to Kostroma, Schaslyve, and possibly Chkalove.
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Russian Advances Near Bakhmut: Kodema Captured, Push Towards Mykolaivka and Vesela Dolyna
10/ Bakhmouth, reaching, according to them, the first residential areas. To be seen. A little further south, the capture of Kodema is confirmed and the RU are pushing towards Mykolaivka Druha and Vesela Dolyna. This would allow them to cut off road 513 south of Bakhmut.
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Ukrainian advances near Lysychansk deemed unlikely
The rumors of a Ukrainian advance as far as Lysychansk seem dubious to me, even if it’s likely that some Ukrainian special forces may have infiltrated in a reconnaissance mission. Incidentally, this isn’t the first time this has happened.
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Ukrainian Strategic Position: N-S & E-W Salient, Pressure on Locality
6/ The position is important as it links a North-South formation with an East-West one. It can be described as a salient and therefore holds obvious operational significance. The UKR are applying pressure but have not yet captured the locality.
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Potential Ukrainian Advance Strategy Near Inhulets and Kupiansk
4/ with the Inhulets. Or perhaps slightly back, on the heights of the thalweg, bombarding the banks and slopes? This would be a hypothesis explaining the UKR probing actions. Perhaps the UKR are advancing from Kupiansk: to be confirmed.
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Uncertainty on Ukraine’s northern front
On the northern front, there is still a lot of uncertainty on two main points: has Russia decided to regain control of the Oskil River? There have been many rumors about Ukrainian crossings of the Oskil, Russian recapture of eastern Kupiansk, etc.