26/ The fear of a new Chernobyl stirs minds (even if it seems unlikely) and motivates ongoing diplomatic exchanges. As with wheat, this is a non-military "topic" on the table for indirect conversations between the two countries.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

24/ Political Assessment: some diplomatic movements took place this week: visit to Ukraine by R. Erdogan and UN SG Mr. Guterres; telephone conversation between V. Putin and E. Macron. The discussions mainly focused on the power plant

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

19/ Similarly, the UKR casualty rate still appears to be very high. While far from a peak of 200 deaths per day (early summer), daily losses are still in the dozens, according to converging indications. Kyiv is thus organizing insistent recruitment campaigns.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

17/ and logically do not allow exploitation, as has been observed for five weeks. Thus, the summer period, which was logically expected to be one of major maneuvers, is heading towards a tactical stalemate. Relatively, this is a success for UKR in that they have held their ground.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

The observer struggles to keep up with the successive Russian (Kharkiv, Soledar, Bakhmut, Donetsk, even Kherson) offensive thrusts that fail to hold ground. This haphazard activism logically fails to break through, especially when artillery support is lacking.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

11/ In the first case, the attrition campaign deep within RU stocks and depots, as conducted by UKR for the past 5 or 6 weeks, is likely having effects and reducing the Russian artillery's fire support advantage. We had noted that

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

7/ to organize their new defensive lines. A little further south, in Marinka, the RU are also blocked. I thought they held two-thirds of the locality, they control at best only half.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

8/ Finally, further south, efforts towards Pavlivka are not yielding results. On the Kherson front, Ukrainian forces are also not advancing. On the contrary, Russian forces have reportedly captured the village of Blagodatne, which they had been trying to take for at least three weeks.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

In the Donetsk sector, Avdiivka still holds without being bypassed by the north. The Russians are unable to break out of Spartak. Pisky has been captured, but they fail to advance toward the north (Opytne and Vodyane), giving the Ukrainians time.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog

5/ Zaitseve (the southern one, near Horlivka) had been announced as captured. However, the western part (on the reverse slope and road 513) still appears to be held by the UKR. The RU, on the other hand, are reported to have captured the hamlet of Dacha, just to the north.

→ View original post on X — @egea_blog