BTW, regarding grain…not enough has been made of the UKR strategic retaking of Snake (Zmiinyi) Island. SW of Odesa, this UK to again using the Bystre/Danube Canal from the Black Sea…Romania is instrumental in opening that route for grain into Europe, & beyond.16/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Donbas slugfest: minimal Russian gains, Ukrainian resistance, artillery focus
With that as background, here are some final thoughts:
1. In the Donbas slugfest, RU has gained very little. Few tactical success, but operational & strategic failure.
2. In the Donbas, UA is contesting every foot of ground along a wide front.
3. Donbas remains an arty…17/ -
Russia loses credibility after missile strike on grain silos
Which brings us to ANOTHER factor in RU losing credibility: Just 24 hours ago, RU signed a deal for shipment of grain. This morning in Odesa, they launched four Kalibre missiles at UKR grain silos. Proof to the west: DO NOT TRUST ANY DEALS W/ PUTIN! 15/ https://
washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/
22/ukraine-grain-deal-turkey-russia/
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Russian morale low, units disobey orders and flee
Those losses are also an exponential factor when weighing morale. RU morale is low; soldiers don't understand the plan, units aren’t moving, supplies aren't getting through (& that's getting worse). Units are disobeying orders, running away.13/
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Sanctions bite at month 6, alliance support for Ukraine steady
Add to that, we're at month 6, when it was predicted RU sanctions are increasingly taking a bite. At the last multinational cooperation session, there was reportedly no “slow down” in alliance support for UKR. 14/
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Russian leader casualties: a tough exponential factor in combat
As the article says, RU has sustained significant # of leader casualties/day. But “leaders lost” at any level -especially in the RU army- is tough. Leader replacement is hard in war. It's an exponential factor in combat. 12/
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US announces more HIMARS and tele-repair support for Ukraine
Another announcement today from @secdef on more HIMARS & ammo going to Ukraine. That includes spare parts & repair equipment My sources tell me UA has established "tele-repair" (like telemedicine) sites to keep equipment running. That's the kind of adaptation needed in war.11/
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Ukraine’s slight advantage not at operational scale but has potential to improve
RU won’t “figure it out” anytime soon. IMO, their senior & junior leaders don't have that background or capacity. UA has a slight advantage here, but – truthfully – not at the scope & operational scale needed. But the UA DOES have potential to improve on what they have. 9/
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Russia hasn’t mastered combined arms; pre-war practice crucial
Additionally, RU hasn’t “figured out combined arms” (as stated in the interview) because it takes a long time to "figure it out" during war. If you don't know & practice how to "combine" tanks, inf, eng, log, air defense, aviation, BEFORE the war starts, you'll not recover. 8/
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Russian artillery imprecise hits civilians, Ukraine evades
RU doesn't need to be "precise" to hit most civilian targets. (BTW, that's a war crime). Barrages against the UA have been less effective, as the UA withdraws, then returns when the arty stops. Make no mistakes, UA has taken casualties…but RU effectiveness is lacking. 7/