18/ Ukrainian TV, Day 98-107. There is a growing unevenness in support for Ukraine. Britain, Poland, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Baltic states are the most supportive, while Germany, France, Italy, and Hungary voice support but show little in terms of action.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Humanitarian impact of Ukrainian refugees
20/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees total 9.87+ million, with 7.23+ million in countries bordering Ukraine and another 2.64+ million throughout Europe. Internally displaced people in Ukraine now number 6.76+ million (1.7+ million in eastern Ukraine and 562K in southern Ukraine).
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Russian military losses erode combat effectiveness, mobilization resistance grows
17/ The continued loss of a battalion equivalent a day will erode UAF overall combat effectiveness faster than it will the RAF, even with Russian force generation issues. The RAF cannot ignore growing resistance to coercive mobilization practices if it hopes to replace losses.
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Ukrainian losses assessment in Donbas
16/ Battle Damage Assessment. Ukrainian government authorities have acknowledged the heavy toll current combat operations in the Donbas are taking on Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) personnel. The UAF is reportedly losing 100-200 killed in action (KIA) and 400-500 wounded in action (WIA) per day.
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Improved Russian EW disrupting Ukraine
15/ Improved Russian electronic warfare is causing havoc with Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs, C2 nodes, counter-battery radar, and radio network communications. With their heavy reliance on UAVs for targeting, RAF EW is hindering UAF artillery operations.
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Black Sea: Ukrainian anti-ship gains push Russian fleet back, NW region contested.
13/ Black Sea OTMO. The Russian blockade of Odesa continues. However, improved Ukrainian anti-ship capabilities have forced the majority of Black Sea Fleet surface activity to be pushed back 100km from the southern Ukrainian coast. The NW region of the Black Sea is now contested.
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Ukrainian counteroffensive limited in southern Kherson
11/ Odesa-Kherson OD. The Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive into northern Kherson has seen little success so far. Despite deploying a significant number of forces for the operation, Ukrainian units managed to establish only an 8km-wide and 10km-deep foothold east of the Inhulets River.
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Artillery shortage and defensive choices at Severodonetsk
However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) are struggling to keep their artillery units supplied, hindering their ability to deliver timely counter-battery fire against the Russians. With losses mounting, the UAF will face a difficult decision in choosing to maintain the defense of Severodonetsk or to withdraw.
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UAF’s offensive power against RAF uncertain
4/ For the UAF it is unclear if they will have the combat power to renew their offensive to push remaining RAF units over the international border. At a minimum UAF forces in the Kharkiv metro area will be able to contain RAF activity to its present enclave.
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RAF must secure Severodonetsk Salient for breakout
6/ The RAF must secure the Severodonetsk Salient to achieve a true general breakout into the relatively undefendable terrain of western Donetsk. Penetrating the remaining UAF defenses on the Siverskyi Donets north of Slovyansk and expanding the Popasna Bulge shapes this.