18/ Military assessment: Over the last two weeks, the Ukrainian forces seem to have chosen two options: attacks on secondary fronts to force Russian forces to redistribute their strength and thus lessen their main effort; establishing a forward defense.

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In central Donbass, the maneuver to bypass Adivka continues and the H20 road is reported to have been reached by the RU. The link to Konstantinovska in the NW is reported cut. It is a pity that commentators and cartographers are not more interested in the Horlivka sector.

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15/ Further south finally, north of the Popasna salient, the Russians have taken the village of Komyshuvakha and are pushing north towards Vrubivka and especially east to close the cauldron of Zolote-Hirske, attacked from three sides. This stronghold should fall soon. The road would then be open.

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14/ if the units sent include the foreign volunteer legion. Because at the same time, the Ukrainians seem to be experiencing growing HR difficulties, we will come back to that. But the capture of Severodonetsk by the Russians seems inevitable.

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12/ These units are said to have regained some ground and urban fighting has been ongoing since, with the Russians logically also sending units as reinforcements. Some commentators have spoken of a trap or maneuver to exhaust the Russian infantry.

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11/ In other words, the city was on the verge of being taken without a fight. For Ukraine, what was acceptable from a military point of view was probably not from a political point of view. Thus we have seen Kyiv send units to regain a foothold in SK for 2 days.

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In Severodonetsk (SK), Russian forces had taken control of 60 to 70% of the city within a week, with no Ukrainian opposition. Videos showed Russian infantry advancing without apparent danger. They may have reached the industrial outskirts to the southwest of the city.

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Perhaps Pasika, two villages south of the Donets. They had to wait to take full control of the northern bank following the capture of Lyman ten days ago. Thus, the advance along the M03 road towards Sloviansk may have begun: to be continued.

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6/ Finally, the terrain is fairly flat and open, allowing observation and maneuver. For six days, we have had very little direct information about what is happening around this salient, on both the Ukrainian and Russian sides. The Russians seem to be strengthening their positions to contain the attacker.

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This is all the more surprising as the area is generally favorable to the UKR: it is the closest to supplies coming from the West and it is attacking the most advanced point of the RU, relying on a fragile logistics line (a single bridge over the Dnieper in Kherson).

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