—
17/ Battle Damage Assessment. Ukrainian intelligence suggests RAF BTGs in the Popasna area are reduced to approximately 250-300 effective each, with high losses to armored vehicles. They further speculate the Russian MoD will funnel all available replacements to the Avdiivka & Popasna areas.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
-
Battle Damage Assessment: 250-300 BTGs in Popasna
-
Humanitarian impact of Ukrainian refugees
19/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees total 9.4+ million, with 7.18+ million in countries bordering Ukraine and another 2.22+ million across Europe. Internally displaced people within Ukraine remain at 7.6+ million (1.4+ million in eastern Ukraine and 519K in southern Ukraine).
-
Russian Blockade of Odesa and Black Sea Tensions
14/ Black Sea OTMO. The Russian blockade of Odesa and the Ukrainian coast persists. Russian Kilo-class submarines continue to operate with impunity in the western Black Sea, launching Kalibr missile strikes. Russian defenses around Snake Island are being further reinforced. #Odesa #Sevastopol
-
Snihurivka assault aims to break northern Kherson defense, force Russian consolidation
13/ The assault on Snihurivka is likely meant to rupture the RAFs ability to maintain a coherent defense of northern Kherson Oblast and force Russian forces to consolidate in their ever-growing defensive belt around Kherson itself. Fighting remains intense for Snihurivka.
-
Defense and Offense in Kherson Region
10/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Although a significant number of battalions have recently been redeployed from OC South to OC East in the Donbas, Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive in northern Kherson Oblast and against Russian-occupied Snihurivka in Mykolaiv Oblast. #Kherson
-
Assauts ukrainiens près de Davydiv Brid
12/ The assaults from Vysokopillya to Zolota Balka are likely meant to neutralize Russian troops in this area from supporting the penetration at Davydiv Brid while preventing the completion of Russian fortified defenses, disrupting efforts to occupy the Oblast.
-
Ukrainian Partisans Increase Activity in Occupied Zaporizhzhia, RAF Convoys Move Cautiously
9/ Ukrainian Partisan activity continues to grow throughout occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with Ukrainian intel reporting RAF convoys move in heavily armed columns & along main roads to better defend against ambushes. RAF units here are still of low quality & strength.
-
RAF’s role in Russian advance to Donetsk border
7/ It remains to be seen whether the RAFs small operational maneuver grouping (i.e., Chechen, Wagner, VDV, select Guards units) can continue to spearhead a Russian advance to the Donetsk Oblast border if success is finally achieved in the Severodonetsk Salient.
-
Kharkiv OD: Ukrainian offensive toward Ternova and Vovchansk
3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukrainian offensive activity in this area has been focused on liberating Ternova while resuming its advance toward Vovchansk through assaults to retake Starytsya & Rubizhne. Activity from Kozacha Lopan to Vesele has been limited to artillery exchanges.
-
Staryi Saltiv bridgehead critical for Ukraine’s pressure on Russian defenses in Kharkiv
4/ The Staryi Saltiv bridgehead is assessed as the most critical area in the Kharkiv OD for Ukraine. From Staryi Saltiv Ukrainian forces will be able to place greater pressure on Russia’s ability to maintain its shallow defense by advancing into northern Kharkiv Oblast.