While I wont get into it, I'd add…the UA is also concerned about RU secondary efforts in the south (continued attempts at the S. supply line between Rostov to Kherson and Crimea) & especially the threats against Mykoloaiv & Odesa remain. There is still a RU Navy threat. 8/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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RU attacks toward Lyman and Sieverodonetsk; river crossings critical
In Donetsk, RU attacks toward Lyman & Sieveronetsk, needing river crossings. Proving difficult so far for them, but it appears their main effort. I'm watching this closely. The UA is, so far, countering & repulsing these attacks. Fighting is tough. NOT a stalemate. 7/
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Facteurs clés dans la guerre en Ukraine
Other factors starting to play a part: RU is bringing in regenerated forces (& old T62 tanks) to secure gains in cities. But they must now play for the "long haul." Not good. UA gets new weapons daily, but they're fatigued on E front & must now conduct guerilla/SOF fight. 5/
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Russian defense near Kharkiv and offensive near Izyum
Near Kharkiv, RU are improving defense, bringing in Air Defense, relocating regenerated forces. That fight has drained them, much like Kyiv. Near Izyum, RU are trying to resume the offensive & are relocating forces near Slovyansk & attacking several cities. Also draining. 6/
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Ukraine fights back with mobile reserves and counterattacks
Make no mistake, UA is fighting back. Hard. As I said 4/9, UA must be mobile, agile, & strong. Counterfire now a factor. Mobile reserves & quick reaction force important to "plug holes." Counterattacks (especially vs river crossings) required, but must be timed precisely. 4/
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Russian artillery and small unit tactics avoid stalemate label
Some analysts have called this a "stalemate." Ive attempted to avoid that phrase, because there is LOTS going on. RU is, as predicted, attempting to use their artillery to open up the front line. They follow w/ small units doing RIF, if they see advantage they push through.2/
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Russian forces gain ground, force bridgeheads across key rivers and logistics hubs
RU sees some success, destroy some cities, gain some ground. In a few cases, they've been able to reinforce w/ larger units. RU is forcing bridgeheads across rivers & key logistics hubs that will allow them to force further attacks. Key terrain & log support: Critical. 3/ t
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Hertling’s analysis of Russia’s Phase 2 combat tactics
On or about 9 April, as RU claimed they were entering "phase 2," I mentioned we'd start seeing a different sort of combat. Arty barrages, recon in force (RIF) & attempted breakthrough by RU…w/ hasty defense, counterattacks & some withdrawals by UA. What's happening? A 1/9
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Occupants abduct Oleksandrivka council secretary
Occupants have abducted the secretary of the Oleksandrivka city council in Kherson region, Syrota. VIDEO https://censor.net/ua/v3344089
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Russia’s current tactics differ vastly from past human wave assaults like Berlin
There's a *big* difference between what Russia is doing now and the kind of human wave tactics they used in the past. In the 16 days of the Battle of Berlin they lost 81,116 dead or missing, 280,251 sick or wounded and nearly 2,000 tanks. Nothing today compares to that.