UK rejects Russia's offer to unblock Ukrainian ports in exchange for lifting sanctions. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called Moscow’s proposal “blackmail,” adding that those politicians who may think of accepting it should first visit the graves of killed Ukrainian children.

→ View original post on X — @kyivindependent

Russia has intensified the use of aircraft in the war against Ukraine to support its ground offensive in the Donbas and to identify Ukrainian air defense systems, says a spokesman of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Oleksandr Motuzyanyk

→ View original post on X — @hromadske

In my view, it is too early to predict how the battle for the Donbas will unfold. Ukraine may lose territory in the short term, but Russia faces significant challenges in sustaining its military effort in the long term, or maintaining control over any gains. The war could become protracted.

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Russian forces may not be prosecuting offensives with much enthusiasm, but it is equally difficult to expect them to rout or melt away. Similarly, the situation within Ukraine's army remains a major unknown, but it is clear the war is taking its toll. 15/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Russian forces west of Kherson have also used the past few weeks to dig in and fortify their positions. They're not going to give up territory easily even in areas where they're at a relative disadvantage. 14/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

The overall military balance in this war still trends in Ukraine's favor, given manpower availability and access to extensive Western military support. That will show itself more over time. But the local balance in the Donbas during this phase is a different story. 10/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Russian forces have also begun encircling Lyman, and supposedly entered the city, which suggests they will probably consolidate control of terrain north of the Donets river. Meanwhile UKR forces will move to secondary defensive lines. 7/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Recent Russian gains in the Donbas, despite a relatively weak military advantage, suggest that UKR forces have suffered significant attrition. Zelensky mentioned a range of 50-100 KIA per day. This is a high casualty rate. 9/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

The extent to which this breakthrough at Popasna threatens Ukraine's overall position depends on whether or not Russian forces gain momentum. That in turn hinges on force availability, reserves, and logistics to support this advance. 6/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael

Having been blocked south of Izyum, the thrust of the offensive shifted to Severodonetsk, where Russian forces hoped to achieve an encirclement. Izyum now seems to be a fixing action, designed to prevent UKR from moving substantial forces towards Severodonetsk. 3/

→ View original post on X — @kofmanmichael