#Russia In Saint Petersburg, a man with an anti-war banner came to the official Victory Parade.

A spoiler: he was detained. pic.twitter.com/SPUOVLAyzR

— Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) 9 mai 2022

#Russia In Saint Petersburg, a man with an anti-war banner came to the official Victory Parade. A spoiler: he was detained.

→ View original post on X — @hannaliubakova

This is a unrefined analysis, but here's what I take from this: 1. Putin know he's losing: militarily, diplomatically, economically, informationally…it will get worse?
2. Putin can't spike the ball right now; he's looking for a way out?
3. RU domestic support teetering? 5/

→ View original post on X — @markhertling

The next few days are critical. Here's what I'm watching: -Call for mob
-The NE Donbas fight, especially near Sieverondonestk/Popasna; the fight south of Izyum, & the fight over control of the Donets River bridges.
-The UA counterattack NE of Kharkiv
-Mariupol -Logistics 6/6

→ View original post on X — @markhertling

Tactical Objectives:
-Seize Kyiv within 3 days
-Conduct large scale combined arms operations in N, E and S, with overwhelming land and air arms.
-Control Black/Azov Sea
-Secure all cities (then emplace govt supporting RU)
-Establish supply lines to support continued ops. 5/

→ View original post on X — @markhertling

Back to the speech. It contained many of the old tropes/lies:
-NATO going to attack Crimea, Donbas, then Russia (a standard lie. I never heard a RU general ever say any of this…and it's counterfactual).
-Nazis are everywhere, but especially in Ukraine
-The west is weak 3/

→ View original post on X — @markhertling

And here are what I believe were the related initial Operational (military) Objectives:
-Main Effort (ME): Seize & secure Kyiv
-Secondary Effort (SE) 1: Attack to the East & West from Crimea; seize/secure Black/Azov Sea ports
-SE 2: Envelop/Annihilate UA in the Donbas 4/

→ View original post on X — @markhertling

As a reminder, here what I thought were the early RU Strategic objectives:
-Execute regime change in Ukraine (replace Zelensky in Kyiv).
-Control Black/Azov Sea access
-Destroy Ukraine's army in the east
-Subjugate Ukraine's population
-Further Divide NATO & US 3/

→ View original post on X — @markhertling

Patron received his recognition. Among those who save the lives of 🇺🇦 every day are four-legged heroes. The most famous among them is Patron, a bomb-sniffing dog. In the presence of @JustinTrudeau, @ZelenskyyUa presented him an award "For Dedicated Work in the #UAarmy". pic.twitter.com/mssSTlfIKW

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) 9 mai 2022

Patron received his recognition. Among those who save the lives of every day are four-legged heroes. The most famous among them is Patron, a bomb-sniffing dog. In the presence of @JustinTrudeau
, @ZelenskyyUa presented him an award "For Dedicated Work in the #UAarmy".

→ View original post on X — @defenceu