12/ It is assessed that Russian occupation authorities will proceed with an illegitimate referendum to establish the KPR. Ukrainian intelligence suggests that false-flag incidents in Transnistria are intended to tie down Ukrainian forces in Odesa and prevent their support for other operations.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Azovstal: offensive and entry into the complex
9/ Azovstal (Mariupol). On 03 May Russian forces resumed their assault on the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone. Intense air and artillery strikes supported ground assaults which made minimal gains resulting in Russian troops entering the Azovstal complex for the first time. #Azovstal
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Azovstal holds despite Russian assaults
10/ Azovstal still stands. Given the reduced number of Russian troops available for operations against the Azovstal Complex, Russian forces will continue to rely on siege tactics and massed air and artillery strikes to reduce Ukrainian resistance. https://t.co/gTyP2Z2CYG
— Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West (@JominiW) 7 mai 2022Azovstal still stands. With fewer Russian troops available for operations against the Azovstal complex, Russian forces will continue to rely on siege tactics and heavy air and artillery strikes to wear down Ukrainian resistance.
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Limited activity between Odesa and Kherson, Russian reinforcements
11/ Odesa-Kherson OD. There has been little activity in the Kherson-Odessa OD. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces continue to reinforce forward positions for a likely resumption of offensive operations to secure the northern and NW Kherson Oblast borders.
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Russians target Orikhiv and Huilaipole in Zaporizhzhia
7/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian forces are intensifying artillery and air strikes to support limited assaults on Orikhiv, Huilaipole, and Velyka Novosilka. The Ukrainian General Staff assesses that Russia's main objective in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast is Orikhiv. #Zaporizhzhia #Melitopol
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Severodonetsk and Donetsk: Russian Stagnation Near Izium and Popasna
5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces continue to struggle to achieve a general breakthrough along the Siverskyi Donets Line between Izium and Popasna. Along the Izium Axis Russian forces are stalled, unable to gain ground against Ukrainian hasty defensive positions. #izium
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Russia risks troop reallocation near Kharkiv
4/ Russia cannot afford another major defeat and will likely have to repurpose reinforcements designated to the Main Effort along the Siverskyi Donets Line between Izium & Popasna or pull units from that direction to stabilize defensives in the Kharkiv OD. https://t.co/rxgcTfoo3x
— Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West (@JominiW) 7 mai 2022Russia cannot afford another major defeat and will likely have to repurpose reinforcements designated for the Main Effort along the Siverskyi Donets Line between Izium and Popasna or pull units from that direction to stabilize defenses in the Kharkiv Oblast.
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Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kharkiv
Ukrainian TVD, Days 67-72. Over the past six days, Ukrainian forces have conducted a limited counteroffensive north and northeast of Kharkiv, achieving significant results. Russian forces continue to struggle to advance from Izium to Popasna. #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine
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WWII veterans urge Putin to lift Azovstal blockade
In a video address published by @ukrpravda_news, Kyiv veterans of World War II appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to allow Ukrainian military and civilians blockaded at the besieged Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol to leave the encircled plant.
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Oleg Tsaryov claims destruction, Ukraine silent
I saw a Telegram post from Oleg Tsaryov claiming it had been destroyed, but nothing from the Ukrainian side to corroborate that.