Putin’s goal remains to rewrite the post-1991 order: push NATO out of Eastern Europe, bar Ukraine from membership, and regain recognition as a global equal alongside the US, like at Yalta in 1945. 6X
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Putin says war’s root causes are Russia’s lost Cold War status
NYT: After the Alaska summit, Putin said the war’s ‘root causes’ lie in Russia’s lost Cold War status, not Ukraine. He avoided calling it a war, referred to ‘the situation around Ukraine,’ and demanded a new European ‘security balance’ to restore Moscow’s global power. 1/
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Putin links fighting to NATO expansion and lost hegemony
Putin linked today’s fighting to grievances first voiced in Munich 2007 and again in 2022: NATO expansion, loss of Moscow’s hegemony, and a world where Russia no longer sets the rules. 2/
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Two scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine, per WSJ
source: https://wsj.com/world/how-will-the-war-in-ukraine-end-two-scenarios-2bcc0d99
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Russia trades small gains for attrition, Ukraine resists, analysts warn exhaustion
Battlefield drives this outcome. Russia trades small gains for attrition. Ukraine resists after 3.5 years, relying on drones and defense. Analysts warn of exhaustion without new mobilization, but say collapse is unlikely. 4X
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Russia demands smaller army, arms caps, and protectorate for Ukraine
Split with subordination: Russia demands smaller Ukrainian army, caps on Western arms, and changes to constitution, leadership, and identity. Ukraine survives on the map but reduced to a Russian protectorate. 3/
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Korea 1953 analogy: divided Ukraine, Western troops, Putin’s failure
1st option – mirrors Korea 1953 — divided but secure. For Putin, it is failure: 20% of ruins held, 80% lost, Western troops entrenched in Ukraine. He would need to fear sanctions or instability at home to accept it. 2/
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WSJ outlines two possible endings for Ukraine war
WSJ: 2 endings to the Ukrainian war. Split with protection — Russia keeps ~20%, rest survives with Western guarantees. Split with subordination — Russia weakens Ukraine’s army, weapons, and politics, turning it into a protectorate. 1/
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Kharkiv drone attack: 5 dead including child, 20 injured
Kharkiv came under Russian drone attack on the night of August 18. The strike hit a five-story residential building, killing at least five people, including a one-year-old child, and injured 20 others, among them at least six children. Rescue teams continue to search for people
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Update on destruction of enemy armored vehicles and tribute to defenders
На рівні попереднього тижня було ураження танків та основних видів бронемашин противника. Бажаємо всім Силам оборони України натхненного понеділка!