19/ Simultaneously, Ukraine will need to disrupt Russian disruption efforts in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Actions here would mostly by SOF/Partisan/Guerilla activity to target Russian logistics and prevent effective control of occupied cities & towns.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Ukraine aims to stop Russian offensive in Severodonetsk
Ukraine’s primary focus will be first to defeat the Russian offensive in the Severodonetsk Salient. Russian forces here constitute the last of the Russian military’s immediately available offensive force.
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Ukraine Military Strategy: Disruption Zones & Offensives
The logical sequence of actions to achieve these conditions involves conducting simultaneous operations in designated Disruption Zones in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, followed by a series of sequential offensive actions in the Kherson and/or Kharkiv Oblasts.
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Ukrainian military stretched thin, potential for counteroffensives discussed
3/ One speculative statement I made guessed that the Ukrainian military may be stretched too thin for major counteroffensives, especially of the kind I suggest in this thread. However, I do feel the potential for the action I describe is there for a few reasons.
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Ukrainian Armed Forces operational security: a challenge for forecasting
2/ I ended the surmised Russian OPLAN thread with a very brief discussion regarding the challenge how sparse data on the Ukrainian Armed Forces makes it difficult to forecast its operational direction. If anything, this shows the strength of UAF operational security.
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Russia claims Ukraine shelled villages; Ukraine denies, warns of hysteria
Russia claimed several villages were shelled from Ukrainian territory, while Security and Defense Council of Ukraine rejected the accusations.
previously warned about this scenario of accusations "to ignite anti-Ukraine hysteria in Russia." https://
rferl.org/a/russia-ukrai
ne-accuses-shelling-bryansk/31803487.html
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Russian ship crew losses unknown, 485 personnel with 66 soldiers
Related Russian personnel losses are not yet known, although there were 485 people in the ship's crew (66 of them soldiers)." /21
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Ministre lituanien décrit le naufrage du Moskva
The Lithuanian Defence Minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, has posted an account of the sinking: "A SOS signal was given from the Russian cruiser "Moskva" at 1:05; [at] 1:14 the cruiser ship was lying on the side and half an hour later all power went out. … /19
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Russian cruiser Moskva sank while being towed after fire
Russian Ministry of Defence statement: “The cruiser ship Moskva lost its stability when it was towed to the port because of the damage to the ship’s hull that it received during the fire from the detonation of ammunition. In stormy sea conditions, the ship sank.” /18
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Russians deployed at Illich Steel and Iron Works
GeoConfirmed. "Russians storming at Illich Steel and Iron Works Mariupol" 47.16508, 37.56485 GeoLocated by
@200_zoka #UkraineInvasion
#UkraineRussianWar
https://t.co/wfa7xk5zqh