Zelensky: ‘We are defending the ability of a person to live in the modern world.’ In a “60 Minutes” interview on April 10, President Volodymyr Zelensky said the world is responsible for the war in Ukraine, comparing its inaction to countries that stood aside during WWII.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Russia may use chemical weapons
Russia may finally use chemical weapons to force Ukrainian units from their prepared defenses and into the open where they are vulnerable to air and artillery strikes. Such a move would bring a new level of barbarity to the fighting.
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Second battle zone near Kherson
The second battle zone would be around Kherson. Here, we would expect to see a priority of forces and resources allocated beyond those sent to the Donetsk battle zone to maintain control of this decisive strategic point—a point necessary for a favorable negotiation position.
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Russians advance toward Sloviansk, likely feint
Russian forces will advance on Sloviansk, but this will most likely be a feint to pin Ukrainian maneuver brigades in the Severodonetsk Salient. It is more probable that Russian forces will seize the key geographic point of Barvinkove and then push southwest.
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Russian outflank attempts near Izium in eastern Ukraine
19/ This area also constitutes one of the most fortified areas of east Ukraine. Russian attempts to break through the Ukrainian LOC over nearly two months of combat have proven unsuccessful. It is likely that Russian forces now massing near Izium will attempt to outflank the line
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Main Russian battlefield zone in Donbass
18/ It is assessed that the primary battle zone for Russian forces will be in north-central Donetsk. Located here are the Donets River Line, the Severodonetsk Salient, and the former Line of Contact running southeast to southwest from Popasna to Donetsk, along with seven Ukrainian maneuver brigades.
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Russia’s strategic goals: key military conditions
The logical conditions Russia must achieve to meet its strategic goals are the ability of the Russian military to seize and hold the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, retain territory it occupies in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and hold Kherson and its surroundings.
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Ukrainian military significantly damaged, defense goals met despite exaggerated claims.
8/ Though the claims made as to the level of destruction suffered by the UAF & its defense industrial base were exaggerated, it can be inferred that significant damage has been inflicted on the Ukrainian military, to the point the General Staff can claim a goal has been met.
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Kremlin war aims in Ukraine unlikely to change, vital for regime survival.
4/ I do not see the Kremlin altering their war aims in Ukraine. If anything, the defeat of Russian forces in Kyiv have caused Putin & his top advisors to see the fulfillment of their war aims as vital to the survival of their regime. Therefore, I feel they will remain in place.
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Ukraine War Activity Maps by @jominiw
These maps were created by me based on the most reliable information about activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from various sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.