But, UKR must also find ways to be more mobile for this new phase. First, they'll need very good intelligence about where RU forces are moving. Then, tanks they've "acquired" from RU and those provided by NATO nations will help. 15/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Russian forces lack maneuver training, C2, and logistics support.
My belief, because of what I've seen, is RU hasn't trained or practiced these kinds of maneuvers. Based on what we've seen, the RU "maneuver" capability, skill of their force, C2 & log support are all extremely weak. And, they haven't tried this in the Donbas in 8 years. 10/
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Hertling: Russian forces from Kyiv and Kharkiv mauled, ineffective soon
Also, I'm convinced RU will NOT be able to get the same forces they used in the Kyiv and Kharkiv offensives back into the fight anytime soon, no matter what others say. Those forces are depleted. Mauled. Some may fight, but they likely won't be effective. 12/
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Russian Forces Ignore Ukrainian Strength, Suffer Tactical Defeat
If the RU RIF finds a weak spot, they push through (as shown). If they find strength in UKRs line, they should pull back. Last night, the RU found UKR strength, but kept going instead of pulling back. UKR reports they engaged & destroyed this small RU tactical attack. 7/
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Russian attacks near Razdolnoye target Donetsk-Zaporizhia highway
Well, there's already reports of RU attacks last night from within Donetsk. Reports say RU attempted a "breakthrough" (we'll come back to that word) near Razdolnoye, with a purpose of reaching the Donetsk-Zaporizhia hiway near Bogatyr. (more to that in a minute, too). 5/
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Russian plans to attack Donbas and encircle Ukrainian forces
By reinforcing these lines, and the 2 shoulders in the N & S, RU hopes to conduct frontal attacks in the Donbas while attempting to surround URK's forces from N & S. They'll have trouble executing this plan. But how will the frontal attacks look? 4/
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Ukraine regards DPR and LPR as terrorist organizations, fighting since 2014
As most know, RU/RU-backed separatist & UKR forces have been fighting in parts of Donetsk & Luhansk Oblast since 2014. Ukraine regards both Donetsk & Luhansk People's Republic (DPR & LPR) as terrorist organizations (do NOT call them "breakaway republics"). 2/
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Eastern Ukraine: Mark Hertling’s Guesses on Donbas Shift
What's going on now in eastern Ukraine? A new Many reports suggest RU has shifted their next fight to the Donbas. What can we expect to see in the coming days/weeks/months? Here's a thread of my "guesses." 1/17
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Orbán and Stoltenberg discuss Ukraine and Russia
Spoke to PM Viktor Orbán of #Hungary. #NATO Allies are united in our condemnation of #Russia’s brutal war against an independent sovereign nation. We are prepared for the long haul, supporting #Ukraine, strengthening our sanctions & increasing our deterrence & defence.
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Western officials anticipate new Kyiv attack
Western officials acknowledge that Putin may attempt to retake Kyiv once again, despite a shift in strategy, according to CNN. http://censor.net/ua/n3331924