-Logistics tenuous, but still delivered
-Support from NATO key in remains key in training, intel, log, SOF.
-Civilians taking brunt of RU attacks; refugee support requiring extensive manpower from military
-UKR generals coordinating fights on multiple fronts 12/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
-
Logistics, NATO, civilians, refugees, and multi-front coordination
-
Ukraine status: high morale, flexible command, effective drones and fires
Ukraine status:
-Govt and Citizens support beyond expectation.
-Extremely high morale in UA & UAF -UKR Commanders flexible & applying intel to maneuver forces to right locations.
-UAF, drones & indirect fires highly effective in supporting ground force defense & attacks
11/ -
Russian military failures due to insufficient forces and poor logistics
-RU attacks w/ too few forces hindered success on all axes of advance.
-RU general officer uncoordinated, junior officer & NCO leadership lacking
-Inept logistical support-as I said from the beginning-is certainly a key contributor in failure to reach tactical objectives. 10/ -
Russia’s military: abysmal performance, terror fires, poor morale, attrition
2. Force adaptation:
Russia status: -Army & Air performance abysmal. -Long range fires effective, but only for terrorizing citizens rather than supporting RU forces.
-Force moral is very poor
-All accounts indicate serious attrition in soldiers & equipment 9/ -
Zelensky adamant on sovereignty, open to neutral status with referendum
Meanwhile, Zelensky remains adamant about maintaining territorial integrity & sovereignty. Zelensky considering "neutral state status," given his desire to save citizen's lives. That's a change, but he claims he'll only do so if citizens approve a referendum on the issue. 8/
-
Russian strategic objectives in Ukraine
This map is what I believe were the original Russian Strategic Objectives. A Putin shift to a Main Effort in Donbas, with a potential link up of forces from N & S at Dnipro, would enable his Army to mass forces on what some claim are his "new" objective: Eastern UKR.
7/ -
Two key areas: Russian war aims shift and force adaptation
The two areas that will see the most attention are the shift in RU war aims/strategy, and the adaptation of each force to what they may face next. So here are some comments on each… 6/
-
Irpin liberated from Russian forces, mayor warns of further attacks
Irpin declared liberated from Russian forces. According to Irpin Mayor Oleksandr Markushyn, civilians aren’t yet allowed to return to the city, which is located just northwest of Kyiv. There is a high risk of Russia’s further attacks.
-
Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Khyliuk missing, believed captured by Russians
Ukrainian journalist goes missing, believed to be captured by Russians. UNIAN news agency reporter Dmytro Khyliuk is believed to be held in captivity in Kyiv Oblast since early March, according to his friend, journalist Natalia Boguta.
-
Russia mobilizes 100 prisoners from Chechen colony for Ukraine
"The Russian Federation is mobilizing prisoners and combat reserves. It is noted that about 100 criminals from the colony "Chernokozovo" (Chechen Republic) have been already preparing to be sent to #Ukraine," #Ukrainian intelligence reported