establish an advanced bridgehead that the Russians will want to keep (bridge over the Dnipro). Finally, the continuation of deep strikes (like today's in Lviv) targets UKR logistical capabilities to hinder replenishment efforts. 21/

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This is how they can be seen digging in on their positions, where they can hold without too much difficulty. The surroundings of Kyiv appear quite marshy and wooded, hindering any attacker, whether Russian or Ukrainian. Similarly, Kherson is a lasting asset that should hold.

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3/ In the east, seize the Donbas, which has been one of the Russian pretexts for the "special operation" from the beginning, and specifically conquer the initial oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk, and at best advance to the Dnieper. This explains the simultaneous attack on so many fronts, inexplicable 16/

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seize, at a minimum, encircle the capital. 2/ in the south to at best seize the entire Black Sea coast up to Odessa, at a minimum to exit the Crimean peninsula and reach the Dnieper in the north and Donbass in the east (Sea of Azov). 15/

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On the UKR side, we underestimated the population's cohesion, as well as the military efforts undertaken for 8 years, the ground preparation, and the US Intelligence and C2 support, to name but a few aspects. 13/

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Punctured a second time, this time just north of Donetsk, without the Russians being able to exploit it. The observable facts therefore indicate a reconfiguration of the positions with several key interpretations. Here, a second methodological precaution is necessary. 12/

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Some discovered, following the Russian deputy chief of staff's statements on Friday, what I had been highlighting since at least March 6: the slow pace of Russian forces facing Ukrainian defensive positions in dense urban areas, which are unfavorable for maneuvering. The Ukrainian front would have been 11/

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with Krivyi Rih, behind Dnipro. On the Eastern front, the RU have reached the center of the city of Mariupol, which is in the process of being split in two. UKR resistance is expected to fall soon. Further north, they are continuing their maneuver in Donbas (that 10/

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The moment came from Sumy with much uncertainty and harassment from Ukrainian resistance fighters. In the south, while the deployment facing Mykolaiv has been withdrawn, we note that the Russians are maintaining their deployment on the right bank of the Dnipro and keeping contact.

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Let's look at the facts before moving to a long-term analysis. On the one hand, we observe a localized progression of Ukrainian forces, particularly in the NNW suburbs of Kyiv. This aims to loosen Russian pressure on the capital and push it back beyond… 5/

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