"The world must remain united against the flagrant violations by Russia of the UN Charter, international law and human rights," HR/VP @JosepBorrellF Statement on the adoption of UN resolution on the humanitarian consequences of aggression against Ukraine https://europa.eu/!mC8XHf
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Protracted war in Ukraine: world must accept reality and provide support
16/ It will take time for the world to accept reality : a protracted war in Ukraine that must be won. The world is likely to come through eventually, with more meaningful support. But many lives will be lost. This is the horrible price for UA for Western wishful thinking.
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Russia’s internal implosion as efficient war endgame but slow
13/ What does it mean for the war? The most efficient end game is for RU to implode because of internal conflicts between RU political elites (committed to war), military and public (who pay the cost). Unfortunately, this is not going to happen fast; months or years are needed
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West serious on Putin threat, few committed to Ukraine victory
12/ The West takes the treat of Putin is now much more seriously than before. However, no one, except several strategic partners of Ukraine, are truly committed to winning this war in Ukraine and now. People will be willing to have Ukraine fall and continue to fight PU elsewhere
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2014 Russian invasion in East Ukraine and volunteer response
10.4 Example: the Russian invasion in the East of Ukraine in 2014. Many military commanders and govt officials defected. Ukrainians formed volunteer battalions and engaged and stopped the RU military. The West was not united in its support and many bought RU civil war narrative
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Test of will: war of attrition between Ukraine and Russia
8/ Thus, it now becomes a test of will, a war of attrition. Who has more endurance? Ukraine or Russia?
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Ukraine’s Effective Resistance and Counter Offensives Against Russia
4/ Ukraine can effectively resist Russian ground forces attacks, disrupt Russian supply chains, mount counter offensives, and operate in the rear of the enemy
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Ukraine lacks capability to defend bombardments, West unwilling
5/ Ukraine does not have military capability to effectively defend against bombardments. The West is unwilling to provide such capability.
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Russia capable and willing to indiscriminately shell Ukraine civilians
3/ Russia HAS the military capability to maintain continuous shelling and bombardment of civilians and military in Ukraine. It has the will to do it brutally, indiscriminately, murdering thousands and displacing millions
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Example: The 40 mile convoy north of Kyiv – where is it now?
2.2 Example: remember the 40 mile convoy north of Kyiv that freaked everyone out? Where is it now?