Position of strength in parallel negotiations (see upcoming geopolitical thread).
That being said, the great unknown remains the ability to persevere despite losses. War remains a clash of wills using violence to resolve the dispute. 18/19

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Already 1.8 million displaced (within Ukraine).
General assessment.
We have entered a war of attrition. If the information war, at least in Europe, is undeniably in Ukraine's favor, we must not be fooled by all the images broadcast 15/19

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in terms of weapons and men, as well as ISR and command support. The Russians appear to have committed all their heavy assets and are mobilizing what they can. However, they have large reserves of materiel, and their problem remains the availability of personnel. 11/19

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Let us note that the Russians are focusing on enemy forces. They bypass cities (due to a lack of infantry) and do not truly control the territories they operate in. All they need is to move through them without too many issues.

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must inevitably be taken.
3) The Southern Front at last. I expected a push towards Odesa, which everything indicated. This week's developments suggest a Russian inflection. Indeed, if they are besieging Mykolaiv to have a solid bridgehead on the Bug, 8/19

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We observe that they have begun an advance on the right bank of the Dnipro, heading towards the rear of Dnipro. Another possible objective is the second Ukrainian nuclear power plant north of Kherson. In other words, the second decisive Russian objective appears to be the reduction 9/19.

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of the UKR forces east of the Dnipro. If this were to happen, it would be a severe loss for the UKR and, above all, VP could claim a battlefield success. In general, rapid wear and tear is observed on both sides, more than expected. The UKR benefit from reinforcements 10/29

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Half of the 2 million have already left the city and the pressure will inevitably increase. As long as the Russian encirclement is not complete, the UKR have a clear operational advantage. Kyiv remains a decisive point. 5/19

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2) Eastern front. While Russians are blocked around Kharkiv, they are pushing into the Donbas. In the north, Izium is holding but appears to be in a critical position. In the south, Mariupol is encircled and Russians are pushing north. Crucially, they have initiated two movements towards 6/19.

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slowly south to cut off Kyiv's rear. In the northeast, UKR resistance strongholds hold. In the east, however, Russians have advanced enough to reach the outskirts of Kyiv. Their logistics line, very long and harassed, appears to be established. 4/n

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