Former Ukrainian FM Kuleba observed: You in the West want Ukraine to win, but you do not want the Russians to lose. 8X
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Putin has all the cards, no reason to fold
Source: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-16/ukraine-war-putin-still-holds-all-the-cards-with-no-reason-to-fold?srnd=homepage-europe …
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Western military leaders back defensive porcupine strategy for Ukraine
Western military leaders now back a defensive porcupin strategy for Ukraine – hold, fortify, survive. [I’ve believed that all along. The 2023 counteroffensive, pushed by Biden, was a mistake. ] 6/
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Ukraine recruitment struggle as youth flee abroad, less severe than propaganda
Meanwhile, Ukraine struggles with recruitment as many young people have fled abroad. [True, again. But the problem isn’t as bad as Russian propaganda makes you believe.] 4/
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Ukraine’s edge: cheaper, better weapons; missile gap remains
[True. But Ukraine has its edge too: cheaper and often better weapons – some outperform Russian tech. Cruise and ballistic missiles are the only major gap, for now.] 3/
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Putin’s advantages: cheap weapons, North Korean shells, mercenaries
Putin has advantages: Russian weapons are cheap, North Korea sent 6 million shells (40% of Russia’s needs), and mercenaries fill the ranks. 2/
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Zelensky uncertain of US arms support; Ukraine has only 4 months
Zelensky faces uncertainty about continued US arms support under Trump, who has shown impatience with both sides in the conflict. Ukraine has about 4 months of key munitions if supplies stop. 1/
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Trump’s grudge and US fatigue might lead Washington to abandon Ukraine
Bloomberg: Trump grudge and US political fatigue may force Washington to abandon Ukraine. [That’s always been the risk. Trump isn’t wrong – in game theory, the player who cares most usually wins. Ukraine, then Russia. Europe trails. This's their war more than America’s.] 0/
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Ukraine needs 3-4 million 155mm shells, private plant frozen
Ukraine needs 3–4 million 155mm shells/year. A private plant licensed by the Czechoslovak Group planned to make 100,000 rounds in 2024, 300,000 in 2025. It’s now frozen. No state funding. 8/
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Denmark funds 18 Bohdanas via the Danish model
That’s why some allies use the “Danish model”: instead of sending weapons, they fund Ukraine’s domestic purchases. Denmark is paying for 18 new Bohdanas. It’s fast, cheaper, and keeps Ukrainian factories running. 7/