Despite Russian propaganda victories and Ukraine’s real struggles, the big picture is clear: Russia cannot achieve its strategic goals. Ukraine suffers, but it is winning because Russia is failing. The faster Ukraine scales up drones and missiles, the faster the war ends.

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9/10 Europe is finally waking up, even if slowly. It backs Ukraine against imposed deals, moves to seize Russian frozen assets, and recognizes that if Ukraine loses, Europe is in danger. The tide is turning

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7/10 Ukraine’s strike campaign inside Russia is changing the game. Oil refineries and defense factories are hit weekly. Logistics are disrupted. For the first time, strikes behind enemy lines matter more than small territorial shifts. This is how Russia’s war machine cracks.

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Meanwhile, Ukraine is not a hopeless underdog. Its armed forces are now Europe’s most capable, innovative, and battle-tested. They impose extremely high costs on Russia for every tactical success.

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5/10 Russia has over a million casualties and occupies 20% of Ukraine, down from nearly 30% in March 2022. At this pace, it will exhaust its manpower before achieving anything meaningful. Is Moscow ready to lose another million soldiers and years just to take Donbas?

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