Tomorrow Latvia will transfer another batch of 21 Patria 6×6 APCs to Ukraine
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Mac Hughes, Ukrainian Defender, and His Dad’s Support for Ukraine
Mac Hughes, Ukrainian Defender, and his Dad, Paul, have done so much for Ukraine! @HugsUkraine
, thank you!
Wishing Mac a full recovery! -
Moscow court sentences exile activist to 13 years for fake news
A court in Moscow sentenced her in absentia to 13 years for “fake news.” In exile, she performs Riot Days and raises funds for Ukraine. “I don’t have tanks. I have a voice.” 4/
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Pokrovsk’s strategic value diminished, focus shifts to long-term defense preservation.
Pokrovsk is not insignificant, but the economic and logistical value of the city was lost long ago last fall. Losing the city now is far less critical than preserving the force to ensure a sustainable defense in the medium to long term. 13/
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City held for over a year, now a difficult salient for Russian forces.
Perhaps remarkably the city has been held for over a year, forcing Russian forces to go around it. Though over time it turned from a defensive anchor to another salient, which has proven increasingly difficult to maintain. /12
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Limited impact of Pokrovsk’s loss for Russia
The city holds operational value. Its loss widens the Russian axis of advance in Donetsk west of the Kramatorsk conglomeration of towns, but it does not open those cities to be quickly taken. Hence the impact of losing Pokrovsk should not be overstated. 10/
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Drones complicate operations at 15-20 km depth
The challenge is that drones now interfere with fire control at depths of 15-20 km, making it impossible to retrieve equipment and much harder to extract personnel from pockets (especially from any forward positions).
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Conditions better than Avdiivka but Russian momentum lacking
The conditions are arguably better than the circumstances around Avdiivka in 2024. Russian forces lack momentum and the way they have been fighting won’t generate it. Infiltration yields a creeping offensive but can’t yield operationally significant breakthroughs. 8/
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Ukraine strengthens its flanks against Russian infiltration
Ukraine has brought in reinforcements and elite units to stabilize the flanks, but this may not be enough given the extent of Russian infiltration at this stage. 6/
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Fall of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad closes pocket, Ukraine retreats
If Pokrovsk falls so does Myrnohrad, and the pocket closes. The immediate result is Russian forces will operate drones from Pokrovsk, using the city to displace AFU units further back. Ukraine has defensive lines to withdraw to, and can reset its defense. 7/