Putin is to speak shortly. Russia has passed the laws to allow mobilization and severe punishment for refusing to fight in Ukraine. Russia is rushing fake referenda in the occupied territories. What’s next? What will Putin announce? Full scale mobilization? The start of WWIII?

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov,

We consider the intention to hold pseudo-referendums and the forced passportization of residents of the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories as another attempt by #Russia to legitimize the consequences of its war of aggression against #Ukraine.

→ View original post on X — @mfa_ukraine,

A country which economy in 2020 was just 1.54% of global GDP, a country which hasn’t yet provided dozens of millions of its own citizens with water supply/sewage systems, this country sees itself as a great empire, not as a loser, and wants to swallow Ukraine. Let that sink in.

→ View original post on X — @myroslavapetsa,

Acc to @meduza_en
, Russia’s commanders think that by holding *referendums* in occupied UA regions, it will scare off Ukraine’s army which ‘won’t risk to go offensive on the *Russian* territory’.
How very delusional. It’s the opposite. Just like every time RU thinks it knows UA.

→ View original post on X — @myroslavapetsa,

This excellent new article by @mkimmage and @LianaFix lays out mobilization challenges and tradeoffs. https://
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putins
-next-move-ukraine
…

→ View original post on X — @massdara,

In sum, Russia prepped for months that it can stop Ukraine and its backers with annexation and threats. probably to include a bogus ceasefire option and nuclear saber rattling. I don't see Moscow's plan working. Then what could come next is a Russian lash out. (/8)

→ View original post on X — @massdara,

Escalation could be missile strikes on Ukraine, cyber attacks, counterspace effects, brandishing nuclear weapons (1st step: exercises or movements). These are part of a coercive toolkit. Russia's options are narrowing, stakes are increasing, pressure mounting to show any victory.

→ View original post on X — @massdara,

We are entering an inevitable next phase of this conflict. The fact that Russia is tightening penalties and preparing for mobilization suggests they still believe they have operational-level options before escalating further. However, as I noted, the mobilization base is in poor shape.

→ View original post on X — @massdara,

Ukraine has made it clear it will reject annexation or this kind of ploy. The Kremlin's design is to also frighten Ukraine's supporters with escalating stakes and violence(with a background energy crisis). They've signaled as much with their strikes this week. (/3)

→ View original post on X — @massdara,

{Sigh} It's here at last. As i wrote, referendums to annex Ukrainian territory into Russia. They've been laying this groundwork for months. Today, accompanied by harsher penalties for desertion and refusals. Here are considerations for what's next (1/)

→ View original post on X — @massdara,