The Ukrainian political leadership – as well as the UA generalship & mid-small unit leadership – is proving itself. While there are tough fight ahead, and there will be UA battlefield defeats & victories, I believe few RU advances in the E will turn out to be significant. 9/9
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Russian southern supply lines and naval threats worry Ukraine
While I wont get into it, I'd add…the UA is also concerned about RU secondary efforts in the south (continued attempts at the S. supply line between Rostov to Kherson and Crimea) & especially the threats against Mykoloaiv & Odesa remain. There is still a RU Navy threat. 8/
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RU attacks toward Lyman and Sieverodonetsk; river crossings critical
In Donetsk, RU attacks toward Lyman & Sieveronetsk, needing river crossings. Proving difficult so far for them, but it appears their main effort. I'm watching this closely. The UA is, so far, countering & repulsing these attacks. Fighting is tough. NOT a stalemate. 7/
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Facteurs clés dans la guerre en Ukraine
Other factors starting to play a part: RU is bringing in regenerated forces (& old T62 tanks) to secure gains in cities. But they must now play for the "long haul." Not good. UA gets new weapons daily, but they're fatigued on E front & must now conduct guerilla/SOF fight. 5/
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Russian defense near Kharkiv and offensive near Izyum
Near Kharkiv, RU are improving defense, bringing in Air Defense, relocating regenerated forces. That fight has drained them, much like Kyiv. Near Izyum, RU are trying to resume the offensive & are relocating forces near Slovyansk & attacking several cities. Also draining. 6/
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Ukraine fights back with mobile reserves and counterattacks
Make no mistake, UA is fighting back. Hard. As I said 4/9, UA must be mobile, agile, & strong. Counterfire now a factor. Mobile reserves & quick reaction force important to "plug holes." Counterattacks (especially vs river crossings) required, but must be timed precisely. 4/
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Russian artillery and small unit tactics avoid stalemate label
Some analysts have called this a "stalemate." Ive attempted to avoid that phrase, because there is LOTS going on. RU is, as predicted, attempting to use their artillery to open up the front line. They follow w/ small units doing RIF, if they see advantage they push through.2/
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Russian forces gain ground, force bridgeheads across key rivers and logistics hubs
RU sees some success, destroy some cities, gain some ground. In a few cases, they've been able to reinforce w/ larger units. RU is forcing bridgeheads across rivers & key logistics hubs that will allow them to force further attacks. Key terrain & log support: Critical. 3/ t
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Hertling’s analysis of Russia’s Phase 2 combat tactics
On or about 9 April, as RU claimed they were entering "phase 2," I mentioned we'd start seeing a different sort of combat. Arty barrages, recon in force (RIF) & attempted breakthrough by RU…w/ hasty defense, counterattacks & some withdrawals by UA. What's happening? A 1/9
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US and foreign companies’ Russia withdrawal list at Kellogg
At Kellog Business School panel I have just been asked to provide the list of US and other foreign companies that have or have not pulled from Russia. Here it is https://
kse.ua/selfsanctions-
kse-institute/
…