UKR:
-Also spent from fighting, but maintain great initiative & the fighting spirit. They've suffered casualties, but likely way less than RU.
-They have interior lines & support from citizens & allies (again, more than most realize).
-Better civilian & military leadership. 20/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Ukraine shows initiative, fighting spirit, fewer casualties, better leadership
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UA and RU in logistical attrition battle
UA will face RU attacks on multiple fronts and will need to rapidly redeploy forces to counter RU advances in different locations. Regenerating logistics, equipment, and personnel will be as critical for Ukraine as it is for Russia, since a battle of attrition demands sustained resupply and reinforcement.
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Russia’s military problems: spent units, poor logistics, no centralized command
So, here's the matchup
RUSSIA:
-RU likely hasn't fixed any of their many problems
-their units are spent, and there are few replacements
-their logistics base is bad, and will get worse
-they are still attacking on at least 3 axes & appear to not have a centralized command. 18/ -
Ukrainian troops have support from civilians and politicians, fighting on own ground
Certainly, Ukrainian troops & territorial forces have also taken a toll…but they have massive support from civilians, politicians, each other. And they're fighting on their own ground. They're getting resupplied, albeit slowly. That should increase. 17/
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Ukraine uses interior lines, Russia exterior lines around 1400 miles
Add to this something I've said earlier (and will portray with this hand-drawn graphic): Movement. RU must use exterior lines to reposition units, while UKR can use interior lines. It's about 1400 miles – the distance between Boston & St Louis – around UKR. 16/
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Russie en difficulté dans sa campagne ukrainienne
The DIA assessment is that RU has committed 60-70% of their fighting units to this mission. RU is also at the beginning of a new conscription process, with old conscripted schedule to leave soon. I'd suggest RU is not in great shape to continue this campaign anytime soon. 14/
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Russian unit regeneration hindered by losses and poor training
Based on loss of leaders, loss of RU soldiers, the terrible condition of equipment & supplies going into the fight, the extremely poor training of RU units, regeneration is gonna be tough. You can't throw units like these back into the fight and expect different results. 13/
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Russia fails all five reconstitution factors per Mark Hertling
To reconstitute, you need to consider:
1. State of chain of command (leadership)
2. Personnel losses
3. Equipment readiness to reenter the fight
4. Supplies on hand to support the equipment & men
5. Training needs to overcome first fight failures RU gets an F in all. 12/ -
Russian frontline combat units suffer 30-50% losses
The RU forces – of various types – have suffered losses beyond comprehension. Some estimates have said 10-15%…I'd put it closer to 30-50% of the front line combat units. This isn't a computer game, or stratego…those forces do not just leave one area to fight in another.8/
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Russian losses in Ukraine deemed unfathomable by ex-tank commander
UKR MoD estimated RU casualty figures of 18,000+ soldiers; 700 tanks destroyed or captured. As an old tank Division Commander, those figures are unfathomable to me. The US went into Desert Storm with 400k+ troops and a bunch of equipment…imagine those losses back then. 9/