[True. But Ukraine has its edge too: cheaper and often better weapons – some outperform Russian tech. Cruise and ballistic missiles are the only major gap, for now.] 3/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Putin’s advantages: cheap weapons, North Korean shells, mercenaries
Putin has advantages: Russian weapons are cheap, North Korea sent 6 million shells (40% of Russia’s needs), and mercenaries fill the ranks. 2/
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Zelensky uncertain of US arms support; Ukraine has only 4 months
Zelensky faces uncertainty about continued US arms support under Trump, who has shown impatience with both sides in the conflict. Ukraine has about 4 months of key munitions if supplies stop. 1/
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Trump’s grudge and US fatigue might lead Washington to abandon Ukraine
Bloomberg: Trump grudge and US political fatigue may force Washington to abandon Ukraine. [That’s always been the risk. Trump isn’t wrong – in game theory, the player who cares most usually wins. Ukraine, then Russia. Europe trails. This's their war more than America’s.] 0/
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Katya, pilote d’hélicoptère ukrainienne en combat
Katya is Ukraine’s only female helicopter pilot. Her blond hair, she says, isn’t the story Katya has flown more than 30 combat missions since September 2024. Not one was about how she looked.
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Ukraine needs 3-4 million 155mm shells, private plant frozen
Ukraine needs 3–4 million 155mm shells/year. A private plant licensed by the Czechoslovak Group planned to make 100,000 rounds in 2024, 300,000 in 2025. It’s now frozen. No state funding. 8/
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Denmark funds 18 Bohdanas via the Danish model
That’s why some allies use the “Danish model”: instead of sending weapons, they fund Ukraine’s domestic purchases. Denmark is paying for 18 new Bohdanas. It’s fast, cheaper, and keeps Ukrainian factories running. 7/
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Ukraine’s defense industry faces funding shortfalls despite production capacity.
But factories can’t run on talent alone. Ukraine’s 2024 budget covers less than half of what its defense firms can produce. Zelensky adviser Kamyshin: “It’s twice as painful when you can produce, but you can’t fund the procurement.” 6/
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Ukraine leads world in FPV drones, robotic systems, and EW gear
In some areas Ukraine leads the world (and Russia). FPV drones, robotic ground systems, and EW(electronic warfare) gear are 90–100% domestically produced. The war has pushed top engineering talent into defense – tech grads are building weapons, not apps. 5/
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Russia and Ukraine match artillery output; air defense remains weak
Russia makes ~40 artillery guns per month. Ukraine is now matching that pace. But air defense remains a weak (blind?) spot: Kyiv doesn’t make its own interceptors and still relies entirely on imports to stop missile attacks. 4/