Kyiv frames the war as an industrial and technological race. Fedorov: “Ukraine’s goal is to inflict at least 200 Russian casualties per square kilometer of advance while scaling drones fast enough to offset Russia’s manpower advantage. 6/
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Putin wants war end on Russian terms: Donbas control and security deal
Putin wants to end the war this year — but only on Russian terms. Full control over Donbas, recognition of territorial gains, and a broader European security agreement acknowledging Moscow’s new position. 4/
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Ukraine and allies confident Russia’s invasion is losing steam
Ukraine and allies grow confident Russia's invasion is losing steam. Frontline stabilized by mid-May, Ukraine improved casualty ratios to roughly 1 Ukrainian soldier for every 5 Russians, while Moscow still failed to capture all of Donbas after 4 years of war, Bloomberg. 1/
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Ukrainian drones reshape battlefield
Ukraine’s drone warfare has reshaped the battlefield. Cheap mass-deployed drones inflict heavy Russian losses at the front while deep strikes inside Russia bring the war closer to Moscow and major energy infrastructure.
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Russia’s social contract erodes amid internet restrictions over drones
The social contract inside Russia is also eroding. Authorities restricted messaging apps, disrupted mobile internet across Moscow, and caused billions of rubles in business losses while justifying the measures as protection against Ukrainian drone attacks. 6/
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Putin still believes Russia can seize Donbas this year despite fabricated reports
Putin still believes Russia can seize all of Donbas this year. Russian generals allegedly tell him victory is near, while Ukrainian officials say fabricated battlefield reports move upward through the system to maintain optimism in the Kremlin. 4/
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Russian elites believe Putin leads to dead end, expect escalation
Russia’s elites start to believe Putin is leading the country into a dead end — but still expect him to escalate the war, not stop it. One businessman close to the Kremlin: “There is profound disappointment in Putin,” The Guardian. 1/
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Russia’s key Black Sea oil port on fire after drone attack
Source: https://
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
2026-05-23/russia-s-key-black-sea-oil-port-on-fire-after-drone-attack
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Ukraine strikes Russia’s energy system faster than Moscow can restore
Ukraine is trying to turn Russia’s energy system into a battlefield faster than Moscow can restore it. Deep strikes hit oil exports, chemicals, logistics, refineries, and Black Sea infrastructure simultaneously — increasing economic pressure beyond the front line. 7X
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Drones strike Russian chemical plant
Zelenskyy: “Drones hit the Metafrax Chemicals facility in Perm region, 1,500 km from Moscow.” The plant is one of Russia’s largest methanol producers used for plastics and industrial chemicals. 6/