The key insight here is in fact the standard deterrence logic. Ukraine should be given the resources to credibly commit to reciprocate to Russian attacks rendering them futile or non attractive. 16/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

Also, Ukraine, the U.S. and allies can study Russian responses to deep strikes to devise a proper tit-for-tat strategy to induce Russia to eventually de-escalate and for the conflict to converge to a freeze on deep strike deterred by tit-for-tat capabilities 15/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

If this is true, then we arrive at a counterintuitive conclusion about the way for the U.S. to manage escalation. The IS should give Ukraine weapons to be successful at the contact in the frontline – artillery and air defense and F16. 13/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

Then they came back to the pre-Avdiivka level. Finally, I have not done the analysis, but it is my impression. The attacks in January and late March April were severe, while in February there were fewer missile and drone attacks deep in Ukraine. 12/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

Russia also has constraints but of a different nature. There appears to be negative correlation between the magnitude of deep strikes and the challenges it faces on the front line. During the month of most severe fighting in Aviddivka, deep strikes were fewer 11/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

What we see in Ukraine is that it steadily increasing numbers and capabilities of deep strike drones. It continuously deploys them in larger numbers, but they have not yet reached the level of damage that Russia imposes on Ukraine using the same type of technology. 10/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

Or does Ukraine escalate in response to Russian attacks on its civilian and energy infrastructure. For example, does today attack serve as a response to the recent attacks by Russia on Dnipro and Kharkiv and Odesa? 7/ https://t.co/BuYyaiBvDQ

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) 20 avril 2024

Or does Ukraine escalate in response to Russian attacks on its civilian and energy infrastructure. For example, does today attack serve as a response to the recent attacks by Russia on Dnipro and Kharkiv and Odesa? 7/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

What is unknown is whether there is indeed a gradual escalation and which party escalates. Is it Russia that escalates in response to Ukrainian successful attacks? For example, Kakhovka Dam explosion could be an example of an escalation 6/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov

The U.S. doctrine on Russia war in Ukraine appears to be “escalation management”. It is inadequate in the environment where both Ukraine and Russia use tit-for-tat strategy on deep strikes, while the U.S. lack the political capability to follow through on its commitments 2/

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Visegrad24: Ukraine launched a major drone swarm against Russia, striking 2 power stations and an oil refinery

These strikes defy the US requests to limit strikes to Ukrainian territory, and hint at U.S.-Ukraine conflict about the war doctrine 1/

pic.twitter.com/IXZGbUj7Ci

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) 20 avril 2024

Visegrad24: Ukraine launched a major drone swarm against Russia, striking 2 power stations and an oil refinery These strikes defy the US requests to limit strikes to Ukrainian territory, and hint at U.S.-Ukraine conflict about the war doctrine 1/

→ View original post on X — @mylovanov