Canada will provide over $40 million to purchase large-caliber ammunition rounds for Ukraine as part of a Czech initiative. In addition, Minister @BillBlair announced that Canada will donate a package of night vision devices worth approximately $7.5 million.
Full-scale invasion and national resilience, broadcasted live.
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Ukrainian frontline faces ammunition and manpower shortages from Russian attacks
In the accompanying @CarnegieEndow video below, I explain how ongoing ammunition and manpower shortages, and persistent Russian attacks are create compounding pressures on the Ukrainian frontline, and what to expect if resources are not made available. (3/4) https://t.co/xQr9KP0CyY
— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) 19 mars 2024In the accompanying @CarnegieEndow video below, I explain how ongoing ammunition and manpower shortages, and persistent Russian attacks are create compounding pressures on the Ukrainian frontline, and what to expect if resources are not made available. (3/4)
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Retards dans l’aide létale US en Ukraine
Delays in U.S. lethal aid have already negatively impacted the battlefield in Ukraine. These new graphics outline signposts of degrading combat conditions— where things stand now and what may come next. These will be updated as conditions change. @CarnegieEndow 1/4
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Links to podcasts on Ukraine battlefield dynamics and fortifications
If you're interested in a much deeper discussion of these topics, please have a listen to the recent Russia Contingency with @RALee85 https://
warontherocks.com/episode/therus
siacontingency/30664/ukraine-battlefield-dynamics-manpower-fortifications-and-ammunition/
… and the most recent one released with Ryan Evans (open to all) https://
warontherocks.com/2024/03/fortif
ications-manpower-and-munitions-in-ukraines-daunting-year-ahead/
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Expanded strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is cost-effective
An expanded strike campaign, which I argued with colleagues should be part of the strategy for 2024, is a cost effective way to create challenges for the Russian state. Strikes against Russian energy infrastructure are one example of such a campaign. 21/
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Western support could stabilize AFU this year
With Western support, a stabilized AFU could hold this year against Russian offensives. This presumes fortifications are established (currently in progress), UA has funding + ammo support, and the manpower problem is addressed by Kyiv in the coming months. 20/
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Ukraine increases FPV production, shifts to qualitative dimension
Ukraine is scaling up production of FPV drones, to exceed 1M this year. But basic FPVs are readily countered by EW. The contest is therefore increasingly moving from quantitative to qualitative dimensions. Drone units are differentiated by skill and integration. 18/
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Ukraine: Increased interception of Russian long-range drones
Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian long-range drones is improving, based on a network of sensors, EW systems, and mobile defense groups which now intercept over 40% of such strikes. Cheap forms of strike are steadily being countered by cheap forms of intercept. 16/
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Russian army uses T-54/55 and MT-LBs for troop assaults due to shortages
Russian forces in some cases are employing T-54/55s, or MT-LBs, for battle taxis to deploy troops in assaults due to a lack of BMPs or more suitable vehicles. This doesn't mean the Russian mil will run out of AFVs anytime soon, but it is illustrative of their constraints. 13/
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Russie : tactiques inefficaces en Ukraine
With such tactics Russian forces have been unable to breakthrough in areas where they should be able to advance more easily, like the Robotyne salient south of Orikhiv. But larger offensives, akin to the initial Avdiivka assault, are likely coming this summer and in the fall. 15/